The Miami Heat will play their first game since trading away Jimmy Butler as they visit the Brooklyn Nets on Friday night.
Both teams have struggled to score this season – and as of late – which is why I’ll be taking the Under in my Heat vs. Nets predictions.
Read on for my full analysis including a same-game parlay in my free NBA picks for Friday, February 7.
Heat vs Nets prediction
My best bet
Under 210.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
If you were looking to produce a low-scoring game in the NBA right now, you couldn’t do too much better than pitting the Miami Heat against the Brooklyn Nets.
Brooklyn has spent the entire season as one of the weakest offensive teams in the league, averaging just 105.3 ppg. The Nets rank 27th in offensive rating and play at the slowest pace in the NBA, a combination that has not only kept their own scoring to a minimum, but has prevented opponents from running up the score, too.
The Nets might have more scoring punch with a healthy Cam Thomas (24.7 ppg) in the lineup, but he remains out with a hamstring injury and likely won’t return until after the All-Star break. That leaves Cameron Johnson (19.3 ppg) as the top scorer on the team. Johnson is coming back from an injury of his own, and only put up 17 points in 25 minutes in Wednesday’s 119-102 loss to the Washington Wizards.
Miami hasn’t been great offensively this season either, though their 111.0 ppg average has rated about average on the season. However, the Heat are playing shorthanded at the moment after trading Butler away to the Golden State Warriors.
Butler was averaging 17 points per game and had only played in 25 games for the Heat this season due to various suspensions. The Heat will get Andrew Wiggins (17.6 ppg) and Kyle Anderson back as reinforcements, and Wiggins may truly make a difference on the team. However, he won’t be ready to play until a Monday game against the Boston Celtics.
That leaves the Heat short on scoring options. Tyler Herro (23.9 ppg) is a threat against any opponent, and Bam Adebayo (16.4 ppg) can contribute in the post, but this is hardly a team that will put up explosive numbers right now – especially against a Nets team that likes to sit on the ball.
The first two games this season between these teams both hit the Under, with neither of them producing a total higher than 205 points. Neither roster is set up in a way to change that trend tonight. If anything, these teams are trending towards an even lower total, which is why I’m taking the Under.
Heat vs Nets same-game parlay
Under 210.5
Nets +6.5
Cameron Johnson Under 17.5 points
I’m looking at both teams to struggle on the offensive end tonight, but I also think that will make for a close game. With that in mind, I’m taking the Nets to cover a reasonably large spread at 6.5 points. Brooklyn has covered in three of its last four games overall, while Miami has gone 1-3 ATS in its last four, and may struggle to integrate its new roster tonight.
I’m also going to take Cameron Johnson to go Under his scoring total of 17.5 points tonight. In what should be an especially low-scoring game everyone will see their numbers depressed. Johnson has scored 17 points or less in each of his last three games, and I’m predicting that streak continues tonight, giving us a nice pick to add value to our SGP.
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Heat vs Nets odds
Heat vs Nets live odds
Heat vs Nets opening odds
- Spread: Miami -6 (-105) | Brooklyn +6 (-115)
- Moneyline: Miami -230 | Brooklyn +190
- Over/Under: Over 210.5 (-110) | Under 210.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Heat vs Nets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Nets are 26-24-1 against the spread this season, with Miami putting up a 21-28 ATS record on the year.
- Miami is 2-0 against Brooklyn this year, both straight up and ATS.
- The Under has a 28-23 record in Brooklyn’s games this year, while the Over holds the 27-22 edge in Miami’s games.
- The Heat are playing to an average total of 221.8 ppg on the year; the Nets come into tonight’s game averaging a total of 117.5 ppg.
Heat vs Nets trend
The Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Miami and Brooklyn. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Nets.
How to watch Heat vs Nets
| Location | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date | Friday, 2-7-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network - Sun, YES |
Heat vs Nets latest injuries
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