The Toronto Raptors have pulled off their fair share of upsets this season. But if they can pull off one on Friday night, it may be their masterpiece.
That’s because the Raps are massive 19.5-point underdogs as they visit the Oklahoma City Thunder. My Raptors vs. Thunder predictions bring you my best bets to make this potential blowout palatable for even the most diehard Toronto fan.
Here are my NBA picks for this matchup on Friday, February 7.
Raptors vs Thunder prediction
My Raptors pick
Raptors +11.5 first half spread (-115 at PointsBet Canada)
My analysis
We enter a new era of Toronto Raptors basketball, as the team up North made a surprising move at the trade deadline, bringing in Brandon Ingram.
Surprising because the Raptors are just 16-35 and well out of the playoff race. And while Toronto has been playing better basketball lately, the team enters this matchup losing three of its last four overall.
That includes a 138-107 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies at home on Wednesday night. RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl are both still out, Ingram is also unavailable, and Kelly Olynyk, Bruce Brown and Davion Mitchell, all who played extended minutes in that game have moved on in trades.
It’s no wonder the Raptors are massive underdogs against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have the NBA’s best record at 40-10 and have won their last three games by a combined 94 points. They also lead the league in net rating, and have the likely MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Oh, and they get Chet Holmgren back tonight as well.
So, yeah. It’s a tough task for the Raptors tonight.
But there is an opportunity here. With guys like Brown and Mitchell out the door it will open up more minutes for guys like Ja’Kobe Walter and Jamal Shead. The Raptors have also been much better on the defensive end of the floor lately, ranking fifth in defensive rating over the last 12 games.
The Raptors will also need to outwork Oklahoma City on the glass as that is one of the Thunder’s few weaknesses. OKC ranks 42th in rebounding rate and 25th in opponent rebounds per game.
OKC is the much superior team here. It’s going to win this game. But if the Raptors can do the little things well tonight, they should be able to keep this game close for at least a half. Particularly when you consider that Holmgren will have to get reacquainted with his teammates.
And this number is just so massive. Getting 11.5-point in the first half looks like too many, even in a mismatch like this. Give me the points as the Raps show their claws in the first half.
Raptors vs Thunder same-game parlay
Raptors +11.5 first half
Immanuel Quickley Over 13.5 points
Gradey Dick Over 3.5 rebounds
The Raptors have also been easing Immanuel Quickley back into the lineup after missing the majority of the first half of the season with various injuries. But with a short bench I’m betting he gets a longer run tonight.
Quickley has put up 11.3 points per game in the three games since his return but has been very efficient, shooting 61.1% from the floor in just over 17 minutes per game.
The Thunder are a great defensive team but their high pace of play means a lot of possessions and they actually allow the most points per game to opposing guards in the NBA. So let’s take Quickley to go Over 13.5 points tonight.
Then let’s round this same-game parlay out with Gradey Dick to go Over 3.5 rebounds. Dick is averaging 3.3 rebounds per game this season and is another guy who should get extended minutes with the Raptors short bench. He is coming off a seven-rebound performance last time out against the Grizzlies and gets a good matchup against an OKC team that struggles on the glass.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Raptors vs Thunder odds
Raptors vs Thunder live odds
Raptors vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Toronto +18.5 | Oklahoma City -18.5
- Moneyline: Toronto +1300 | Oklahoma City -2800
- Over/Under: Over 228.5 | Under 228.5
Odds courtesy of PointsBet Canada
Raptors vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Raptors opened this matchup as massive 18.5-point underdogs and that hasn't stopped bettors from backing the home team, moving the line to 19.5 as of early Friday afternoon.
- It's understandable why this spread is so big when you consider all the players out for the Raptors and the fact that the Thunder have won their last three games by an average of 31.3 points.
- The total hit the board at 228.5 and has been bet up to 231.5. I'd have to agree with the early money. Both teams are in the Top 10 in the NBA when it comes to pace of play, and the Raptors defense has struggled against top-tier offenses.
Raptors vs Thunder trend
Oklahoma City has only hit the 1H moneyline in 26 of their last 43 games (-15.05 Units / -10% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Thunder.
How to watch Raptors vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Friday, 2-7-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet |
Raptors vs Thunder latest injuries
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