Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Russell Lights It Up From Deep

Another week of NBA action kicks off this week with eight games on the schedule for hungry basketball bettors to dig into. And with so many games on the board, there is plenty of value to be found in the NBA player prop market.

Tonight, I look to take advantage of the not-so-road Warriors with a rebounding prop for a Pelicans player. Then let’s dive into a pair of intriguing made threes props at plus money when the Timberwolves host the Heat and the Thunder take on the Knicks.

Here are my best NBA player prop picks for Monday, November 21.  

NBA player props for November 21

• Russell Over 2.5 made threes (+126)
• Valanciunas Over 8.5 rebs (-115)
• Dort Over 2.5 made threes (+162)

Picks made on 11/21/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

DLo goes Loco

It could be raining threes tonight in Minnesota when the Timberwolves host the Miami Heat as both teams have their issues defending the perimeter. 

Miami tends to live and die on defense with the three. The Heat’s style is to collapse on the ball and allow opposing teams to kick out for open threes. As a result, Miami ranks 26th in opponent 3-point attempts and 21st in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.  

Minnesota meanwhile, runs multiple big men with Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, leaving them susceptible to closing out beyond the arc. 

But tonight, the best prop number lies with a member of the Wolves. And that is with guard D’Angelo Russell. The Minny guard is coming off a stretch of six games where he shot 40% from downtown on nearly seven attempts per game. He’s also hit three or more threes four times over that six-game span.

Back him to make it five of seven in this matchup against the Heat where the solid plus money is the cherry on top.

D'Angelo Russell Prop: Over 2.5 made threes (+126)

Big man gets boards

The Golden State Warriors finally broke through and got their first road win of the season over the weekend. That said, it was against the lowly Houston Rockets and they still surrendered 120 points. 

Now, the not-so-road Warriors, head to New Orleans to take on the athletic, and physical Pelicans. And if Golden State isn’t careful, the Pelicans will body them out of the gym in this matchup. 

New Orleans uses that physicality to dominate the boards and should have a big edge on the glass tonight against the Warriors. The Pels rank fifth in rebounding rate and 10th in opponent rebounds while the Dubs come in at 27th and 24th in those respective categories. That means a big night could be in store for Pelicans big man Jonas Valanciunas. 

Valanciunas has been in a bit of a slump over the last couple of weeks, averaging just 4.5 boards over the last four games. But this matchup with Golden State might be just what he needs to get back on track to the guy who was averaging 10.6 boards over his first 12 games of the season.

JV had hauled down nine or more eight times over those first 12 games, I’m betting he does so tonight against the Dubs. 

Jonas Valanciunas Prop: Over 8.5 rebounds (-115)

Canadian destroyer

Whether it’s the MVP-level play of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or the lightning-fast offense, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been an entertaining bunch to follow this season — and that shouldn’t change in tonight’s matchup against the visiting New York Knicks.

It’s not all SGA for OKC. The Thunder have also gotten solid contributions from sophomore standout Josh Giddey and Gilgeous-Alexander’s fellow countryman Luguentz Dort. Today, let’s focus on Dort. 

The OKC shooting guard is your typical 3-and-D wing. A lockdown defender at one end and not afraid to jack up some shots from deep on the other. And after a bit of a cold start to the season, Dort is starting to find his shooting rhythm.

After shooting an ugly 20.6% from 3-point range over his first 11 games of the season, Dort is now hitting 45.8% of his long-range attempts over his last five. That includes hitting three or more threes three times over those five contests. (Understand all that?)

He’ll have a great chance to keep making it rain for the Thunder on Monday night. That’s because the Knicks have been about as lax as an NBA team can be when it comes to defending the perimeter. 

No team in the NBA allows opponents to attempt more 3-pointers per game than the Knicks at over 40 per contest. At the same time, New York ranks 18th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage — allowing opposing teams to hit 35.9% of its shots from beyond the arc.

I’m backing Dort to find his groove with some added attempts against the Knicks and hit at least three threes once again at very nice plus money. 

Luguentz Dort Prop: Over 2.5 made threes (+162)

Pages related to this topic