Following a massive nine-game slate on Saturday, there are another 14 teams on the NBA odds board to round out this weekend — meaning plenty of NBA player props to look through.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are searching for lineup solutions as they host Bradley Beal and the Washington Wizards.
Elsewhere, the Minnesota Timberwolves are still working out the kinks trying to integrate Rudy Gobert in a tune-up game against a depleted Oklahoma City Thunder. And in the matinee game, the Los Angeles Lakers are hoping the clock doesn’t strike “Dame Time” against the Portland Trail Blazers.
We’ve surveyed the board for every game on the schedule, and these are our three favorite NBA player prop picks for Sunday, October 23.
NBA player props for October 23
Picks made on 10/23/2022 at 5:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Glass Eater
The Minnesota Timberwolves two-bigs experiment is off to an uneven 1-1 start thus far, but former Jazzman Rudy Gobert is holding up his end of the bargain.
In his last season on the Utah Jazz, Gobert was the best defensive rebounder in the NBA, grabbing 30.7% of all defensive boards. He was no slouch on the offensive glass either, ranking in the 81st percentile in that area per Cleaning the Glass. He’s in a class of his own on the boards, and his opponents in Sunday’s game are in trouble.
The Oklahoma City Thunder lost their likely starting center, rookie phenom Chet Holmgren, to a Lisfranc fracture before the season even began. In his place, their nominal starting power forward, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, has had to slot in. Robinson-Earl is a capable backup big, but at 6-foot-8, Gobert has a massive size advantage over Earl. In his lone season for OKC, he ranked in the 26th percentile as an offensive rebounder and 43rd as a defensive rebounder. That’s not going to cut it against Gobert.
39 boards in two games. that’s the most by a Wolves player through two games.
— Minnesota Timberwolves (@Timberwolves) October 22, 2022
Rudy joins KG (35) and Kevin Love (32) as the third Wolves player to open season with 30+ boards. pic.twitter.com/OV0kH2msmz
The problem intensifies when Robinson-Earl hits the bench though, as while Aleksej Pokusevski has height, he’s so thin that Gobert might not even notice he’s there. Mike Muscala and Darius Bazley provide some more resistance, but again, Gobert is a world-class rebounder, one of the best of his generation, and these guys aren’t starting caliber or close on a competitive team.
Oklahoma City is going to be on a back-to-back as well, so while it might have young legs, it’ll still be recovering from the bludgeoning it received from reigning MVP Nikola Jokic when it has to try and box out the “Stifle Tower”.
Rudy Gobert Prop: Over 13.5 rebounds (-180)
Kuz control
The Cleveland Cavaliers made the splash of the offseason, snatching the coveted All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell via trade from the Utah Jazz, while the rest of the sports world thought a deal with the New York Knicks was written in stone. The Mitchell deal was a coup, but the Cavaliers still have a significant hole in their roster at the small forward spot.
A grab bag of names has been offered from the Cleveland coaching staff to fill in at the three including: Isaac Okoro, Dean Wade, Cedi Osman, and Caris LeVert. At least to start the season, LeVert, a score-first shooting guard, has won the role.
But what does that hole mean in practice? It means that the Cavs can never just set it and forget it at small forward. There are always tradeoffs to be made and sometimes those tradeoffs will prove untenable. That might be the case in their game against Kyle Kuzma and the Washington Wizards on Sunday.
???? @kylekuzma in last night's win:
— Washington Wizards (@WashWizards) October 22, 2022
?? 26 PTS
?? 6 REB
?? 2 AST
?? 4 3PT pic.twitter.com/Plg0yZhwyJ
Kuzma has made great strides on both ends over the past two seasons in Washington, and now is the archetypical big wing that every NBA team wants. He can shoot threes, put it on the floor and drive, and bully smaller opponents. And against Cleveland, he will almost always be matched up against someone slower or smaller than him.
The problems at small forward are well established, but Cleveland’s power forwards should have trouble with Kuzma too. Kevin Love looked rejuvenated last year as a Sixth Man of the Year candidate, but even at his pique, he struggled with players in Kuzma’s mold defensively.
Mobley has future All-World defender written all over him, but he loses a lot of his value if Kuzma is allowed to pull him out to the perimeter full time.
In his last outing against this Cavs team, Kuzma put on a show, scoring 34 points on 13-for-22 from the field. While Kuzma won’t have the quite same opportunity with Kristaps Porzingis and Bradley Beal back in the lineup, he should still score more than enough given the positional advantage he’ll have at almost all times he’s on the court.
Kyle Kuzma Prop: Over 16.5 points (-135)
Partner in crime
For years, Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum formed one of the most dynamic offensive backcourts in the NBA. With that partnership now at an end, there’s a new figure waiting in the wings to take on the role as the Robin to Damian Lillard’s Batman — Anfernee Simons.
Portland has been touting Simons as a prospect internally for years now, but it wasn’t until last season that the rest of the world got to see just what had them so excited.
In 57 games and 30 starts last season, “Ant” put up 118.6 points per possession (83rd percentile among combo guards per Cleaning the Glass) on star-level usage. Almost all of this he did without Lillard in the lineup, going against the opposing defense's best guards, almost all of whom failed to slow him down.
With Lillard back and looking himself with a 41-point masterpiece against the Phoenix Suns, Simons put a stamp on their new partnership with a game-winning hook shot on the final Portland possession as Lillard was double teamed.
Bring The Hook. #RipCity | #SlowMoSaturday pic.twitter.com/9hveEWx4zx
— Portland Trail Blazers (@trailblazers) October 22, 2022
Simons should be even more dangerous as Dame’s sidekick, and the Lakers are ill-suited to stop him. While Patrick Beverley is a fine defender, Simons will be going against Russell Westbrook and his backups while Dame draws the eyes of the rest of the Lakers' defense. Attacking bent defenses and knocking down spot-up shots should see Simons’ build on his already strong shooting numbers.
While Westbrook did a decent job defending Kawhi Leonard in his debut, he doesn’t have the discipline and anticipation to hang with a twitchy perimeter player like Simons. Expect “Ant” to have a big game Sunday.
Anfernee Simons Prop: Over 18.5 points (-115)
