You can count the remaining days of the NBA regular season on one hand. Wednesday’s slate has 10 games on the board, which means plenty of NBA player props to pick from.
I dig into the matchups and mixed motivations, giving my best NBA picks for April 9.
Best NBA player props today
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Lively II Over 4.5 rebounds (+100 at bet365) -
Sensabaugh 3+ threes (-110 at bet365) -
Sabonis Over 0.5 threes (+110 at bet365)
NBA player props for April 9
Dereck Lively II Over 4.5 rebounds (+100 at bet365)
Dereck Lively is working his way back from an ankle injury. He returned to action last week for the first time since early January and has played limited minutes in his first two games back.
The Mavericks’ big logged 16 minutes vs. Atlanta in his return, grabbing five rebounds last Wednesday. Lively played 15 minutes in the second game of back-to-back meetings with the L.A. Clippers on the weekend, recording three boards.
Dallas has been off since that Saturday contest with the Clips, giving Lively four days to strengthen that ankle. He’s no longer listed on the team’s injury report and could see an increase in floor time tonight.
Lively averages 23.5 minutes on the season, hauling down 7.6 rebounds per game. His rebound rate is tough to quantify due to his injury and the in-and-out status of fellow big Anthony Davis. The frontcourt mates have only played two games together since Davis was traded to the Mavericks.
Lively’s player prop of 4.5 rebounds sits on the side of caution, but projections set a very high ceiling for Lively. His forecast ranges from 5.6 rebounds to as many as 8.0, with my number coming in at 6.5 boards.
With the Over 4.5 priced at EVEN money, we’ll bite on Lively to hit the glass for five or more rebounds versus the Lakers.
Brice Sensabaugh 3+ threes (-110 at bet365)
Brice Sensabaugh is seeing a lot more work in the season's home stretch. The Jazz have shut down multiple starters and sit at the bottom of the league, counting down the days to vacation.
The second-year forward has averaged 29 minutes the past three outings, attempting almost 12 field goal attempts per game — eight of which have come from beyond the arc. That’s a significant uptick from his season averages of 19.5 minutes and five 3-point attempts.
Sensabaugh has hit three triples in two of those games and has made at least three 3-pointers in 12 of his last 17 overall.
Player projections for tonight are all over the place, with many not accounting for Sensabaugh’s increase in usage in Utah’s thin rotation. Models sit as high as 2.8 triples from him tonight.
Utah faces the Portland Trail Blazers, who will also lack motivation after being officially eliminated from playoff contention this past weekend. The Blazers are also running out a skeleton crew in the final few games.
Domantas Sabonis Over 0.5 threes (+110 at bet365)
Sacramento punched a ticket to the Play-In Round but can slide back to 10th place if it doesn’t make the most of three straight home stands to end the schedule.
The Kings clash with the Nuggets tonight means a big game from big man Domantas Sabonis. He’s done some of his best work against Denver (averaging 25.5 points), including taking and making shots from outside.
Sabonis doesn’t let it fly from long range often — averaging only 0.9 threes on 2.2 attempts this season — but he’s hit a triple in his two matchups with the Nuggets this year, going a collective 2-for-7 from distance.
Sacramento is a slight home underdog against a Denver squad still pushing for third place in the West (despite what those firings would indicate), setting up a game script where the Kings are trailing at home.
Sabonis shoots almost 42% from 3-point range inside Golden 1 Center and will be playing in his first home game since March 27.
Player projections for Sabonis all sit above the 0.5 total, ranging from 0.6 to 0.9. My number comes out just shy of 0.8 makes from distance for the Kings’ 6-foot-10 star, which should have the Over 0.5 makes at -104 rather than paying +110.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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