The second tier of the Eastern Conference has remained tight through the first quarter of the season, but any hopes the New York Knicks had of moving up took a serious hit on Monday morning with the news that Mitchell Robinson will miss 8-10 weeks following ankle surgery.
The good news is that should provide some value in the NBA odds as the Knicks host the Toronto Raptors tonight, with Robinson’s absence creating a clear rebounding vacuum for New York to fill.
Focusing on that provides direction in our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview the Raptors vs. Knicks on Monday, December 11, with tip set for 7:30 ET.
Raptors vs Knicks odds
Raptors vs Knicks predictions
Mitchell Robinson has averaged 8.7 rebounds in 28.7 minutes in his last 10 games, second on the New York Knicks in boards in that stretch, behind only Julius Randle’s 9.1. And this has been a slowdown for Robinson, given he is averaging 10.3 rebounds this season.
Don’t look at his rebounds as what New York needs to replace, look at his minutes. As much as Tom Thibodeau may want to play Randle for 48 minutes each night, he won’t. Randle already plays 35 or 36 minutes most nights, averaging 35.6 in his last 10 games and 35.0 across the season. He should not see much extra action just because Robinson is sidelined.
Isaiah Hartenstein, though, should. In the last 10 games, he has averaged 18.4 minutes. Take out 29 minutes on Friday in a 16-board performance against the Celtics, and Hartenstein had averaged 17.2 minutes per game in the previous nine games. He could conceivably handle half of Robinson’s playing time, bumping his average up to 31 or so minutes.
And that kind of bump should lead to plenty more boards for the 7-footer. It may seem overly obvious: the tall player should play more, so bet the Over on his rebounding prop. But that is the reality. New York simply has few options to adequately fill Robinson's shoes. Even attempting to go small ball would provide only so much relief, given RJ Barrett and Josh Hart already play more than 28 minutes per game.
Hartenstein dominated the glass against the Celtics on Friday, his size showing some benefits against a wing-based team without a truly physical presence inside. Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford bring their strengths to the court, but neither is called upon to clean up underneath the hoop.
In other words, Hartenstein dominated the glass against a team built much like the Toronto Raptors, just a much better version of it. He should do so again tonight, set to grab at least three more rebounds than his usual with nearly twice as much playing time.
My best bet: Isaiah Hartenstein Over 8.5 rebounds (-130 at PointsBet)
Raptors vs Knicks same-game parlay
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 8.5 rebounds
Scottie Barnes Over 8.5 rebounds
Jakob Poeltl Over 10.5 points
The sportsbooks have caught on to Scottie Barnes’ leap this season, finally moving his rebounding prop up to 8.5 from 7.5, but tonight that may not be enough. Barnes has snagged nine or more rebounds in his last three games and six of his last eight, including grabbing nine against the Knicks on Dec. 1.
Without Robinson, there should be a few more golden opportunities for Barnes to pick up loose balls, even with Hartenstein’s efforts.
The same logic plays into Jakob Poeltl’s points. He has not taken many shots in the last two games, going just 5-of-6 from the field. Before that, he had scored 11 or more points in 11 of 16.
Toronto should focus on getting him going again tonight, and with Robinson gone, Poeltl will have more success close to the hoop.
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Raptors vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis
The market opened on Saturday with the Knicks favored by five, a number that dropped to -4.5 on Sunday, perhaps a widespread expectation that Robinson would be sidelined. Upon official news of that on Monday, the spread fell further to -3.5 or -4, depending on your sportsbook.
As should be expected with the loss of a defensive presence like Robinson, the total rose due to his exit. It opened at 217.5 on Saturday before ticking up to 219.5 on Sunday afternoon and then 220.5 on Monday, even touching 221.5 at points.
Raptors vs Knicks betting trend to know
The Raptors are 6-4 against the spread as underdogs of four points or fewer this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Knicks.
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Raptors vs Knicks game info
| Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date: | Monday, December 11, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN, MSG |
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