The Toronto Raptors have the chance to get back to the .500 mark for the first time since early December. Unfortunately, to do so, they’ll have to get past the betting favorite to win MVP in Nikola Jokic and the Western Conference-leading Denver Nuggets.
Toronto is coming off a split in its mini two-game series with the Washington Wizards to improve its record to 6-2 since inserting Jakob Poeltl into the starting lineup. But Poeltl and the Raps will have their hands full with Denver and its high-octane offense which has led it to wins in seven of its last eight games.
Can Toronto come through as an underdog and keep this game tight? I break down this matchup and bring you my best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for the Raptors vs. Nuggets.
Raptors vs Nuggets best odds
Raptors vs Nuggets picks and predictions
The Raptors continue to look like a completely different team with Jakob Poeltl as their starting center with the team now 6-2 straight up with “Jake Puddle” in the lineup.
Poeltl does a lot for the Raps. They finally have a rim protector, and with him manning the paint, Toronto ranks eighth in defensive rating during his six games as a starter. Offensively, he's great in the pick-and-roll with Pascal Siakam or Fred VanVleet. He’s also a solid passer with good vision and spaces the floor for his teammates.
It also hasn’t hurt that he's given the Raptors something else they didn’t have: reliable scoring down low. He's averaging 16.3 points per game on 75.3% shooting in his eight games as a starter.
But oddsmakers still haven’t adjusted to the fact Poeltl’s usage and scoring has gone up as a member of the Raps, once again setting his point total for this matchup at 11.5. He’s gone Over that number in six of his last seven games, scoring at least 13 in those six contests. And he’s done it against teams with interior presence: Orlando, New Orleans, and Cleveland.
Tonight, he gets a really intriguing matchup against the two-time reigning two-time MVP in Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. Denver has one of the best offenses in basketball, but the defense is just slightly above average — ranking 12th in efficiency.
While Jokic is very important to what the Nuggets do on defense, they do become vulnerable to opposing big at times. Denver ranks 24th in the NBA in opponent points in the paint and 17th in points allowed to opposing centers.
Then there is also the factor that Jokic is on the court a lot during Nuggets games, playing nearly 34 minutes per game. This to me, means the Raptors will need Poeltl on the court as much as possible in this matchup.
"Jake Puddle" continues to be a key piece to this offense, and as long as sportsbooks are giving us these numbers that are too low, we’ll happily ride this over train with him.
My best bet: Jakob Poeltl Over 11.5 points (-115 at PointsBet)
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Raptors vs Nuggets spread analysis
While the Raptors are playing better with Poeltl, traveling to Denver to take on Jokic and the first-place Nuggets will arguably be their tough test since the trade deadline. And oddsmakers agree, opening Denver as 7-point home chalk. Toronto has seen the early action, moving the line down to Nuggets -6.0.
But even getting six points might not be enough for the Raptors. The Joker and his squad have been dominant at home this season, going a ridiculous 29-4 straight up and an equally impressive 23-10 against the spread.
It seems that not many teams can keep up with Jokic and this high-octane offense at altitude. Denver ranks second in the NBA in offensive rating, fifth in scoring, and is first in field goal and 3-point shooting percentage. That has resulted in an NBA-best +11.9 point differential at home this season.
Although the Raptors have improved since the acquisition of Poeltl, this team might just not have the offense to keep up in this one. This has been a team that is known to struggle in the halfcourt and over the last eight games they still rank 22nd in offensive rating and 25th in effective field goal percentage.
On top of that, the Raps' 3-point defense is still suspect at times. While they don’t give up very many 3-balls, they rank 27th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage and now they go up against one of the best shooting teams from long range in basketball.
Additionally, Toronto has been a great bet on the road, going 13-19 ATS away from home. Lay the points with the Nuggets or stay away.
Raptors vs Nuggets Over/Under analysis
When it comes to the total, the number hit the board at 227.5 and the early action has come in on the Over, moving the it to 229 as of Monday afternoon. But with this new number established I may lean the other way.
As noted, Toronto is a better defensive team with Poeltl manning the paint and will have at least one person who can do an OK job guarding one of the league’s best big men. Additionally, the Raps know if they want to have a chance in this one, they’ll need to slow down the game and force the Nuggets to play at their pace, which is 25th in the league. And it’s not like they play at a super-high pace to begin with.
These are also Top 10 teams when it comes to scoring defense. Toronto has played Under 229 in six straight games in regulation while the Nuggets have played Under it in seven of their last nine. This number feels a tad high.
Raptors vs Nuggets betting trend to know
The Raptors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games while the Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven at home. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Nuggets.
Raptors vs Nuggets game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Monday, March 6, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN, Altitude |
Raptors vs Nuggets key injuries
