It’s not shocking that the Toronto Raptors snapping a three-game losing streak coincided with the return of Fred VanVleet, but starting a winning streak won’t be easy as they’ll now visit the best team in the NBA — the Phoenix Suns.
The Suns are still without Chris Paul, but Devin Booker has returned from a stint on the health and safety protocols. Unfortunately, the Raptor won’t be here to torment Booker this time around. Does that mean Phoenix will have an easier time covering the moderate home chalk?
Find out in our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Raptors vs. Suns on March 11.
Raptors vs Suns odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Raptors opened this matchup as 6-point road underdogs but have seen the early money with the number moving down to 5. The total hit the board at 222 and has held steady there as of early Friday afternoon.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Raptors vs Suns predictions
Predictions made on 3/11/2022 at 2:50 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Raptors vs Suns game info
• Location: Footprint Arena, Phoenix, AZ
• Date: Friday, March 11, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, Bally Sports Arizona
Raptors vs Suns betting preview
Key injuries
Raptors: OG Anunoby SF (Out), Malachi Flynn PG (Out).
Suns: Chris Paul PG (Out), Cam Johnson SF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the Raptors' last five games overall and 4-1 in the Suns' last five games versus a team with a winning straight-up record. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Suns.
Raptors vs Suns picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Fred VanVleet’s impact on the Raptors was immediate. The All-Star point guard returned to lead the team in scoring, putting up 26 points in a 119-104 victory over the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday. The team was just more relaxed, as VanVleet not only scored but opened things up for his teammates. But that might not be as easy in this matchup against the Suns.
Devin Booker also returned after a stint in the health and safety protocols and led Phoenix to an impressive 111-90 win over the Miami Heat. Booker was a +31 for the Suns while putting up 23 points. Despite not having Chris Paul, the Suns have shown one of their biggest strengths is their depth.
After a little hiccup coming out of the All-Star break, the Suns have now won four of their last five games. And maybe the most impressive part of the way they have played without Paul is that the team's defense has not taken a step back.
Since the All-Star break, the Suns still rank fourth in defensive rating and sixth in opponent field goal percentage. Even though VanVleet has returned, the Raptors can still be an inconsistent shooting team. In fact, they rank 27th in the NBA when it comes to effective field goal percentage.
It’s interesting to see all this money come in on Toronto, considering the way the team has been playing over the last month or so. Regardless, it has driven the line down far enough that we’re leaning towards laying the points with the home team.
Prediction: Suns -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
While the spread has seen a bunch of action, the total hasn’t. I find this very interesting considering the total looks to contain a better bet than either side, and that is on the Under.
We already talked about how the Suns haven’t skipped a beat on defense without Paul to this point. With the Raptors' inconsistent shooting and still missing a key player themselves in OG Anunoby, points could be hard to come by against a team that allows just 105.8 points per game this season.
But while the Raptors have been in a bit of a slump offensively, they haven’t let it affect their effort on the defensive end of the floor. Toronto ranks 10th in defensive rating and is giving up 109.5 points per game since the All-Star break.
Plus, in the last meeting between these two back on Jan. 11, the Raptors held a fully-healthy Suns team to a mere 99 points.
The Raptors know if they want to keep this game close, they’ll have to give their all on the defensive end and slow down the tempo of the game. The Under looks like a solid bet here.
Prediction: Under 222 (-110)
Best bet
We like the Under enough to make it one of our best bets for this game, but we’re not going to stop there, because Scottie Barnes has continued his hot play in February over into March.
Barnes is averaging 18.8 points per game while shooting 60.6% from the field in the first eight games coming out of the All-Star break and has put up 18 or more points six times over that stretch.
Barnes missed that January meeting with the Suns, but Raptors forwards Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby both had solid games, putting up 22 and 25 points respectively. Even though the Suns have some great defenders, 15.5 as Barnes' total might be giving them a little too much respect.
Bet on Barnes to impact the box score tonight.
Pick: Scottie Barnes Over 15.5 points (-110)
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