Doubting the Golden State Warriors may feel rash, but their season is teetering on the brink of irreversible disaster. Draymond Green is not back on the court just yet, and now Golden State is without another veteran presence after Chris Paul fractured his hand on Friday. Still, the Dubs are slight betting favorites in tonight's NBA odds.
Doubting the Toronto Raptors has been a worthwhile endeavor this season, but they may have steadied their path a touch with last week’s trade with the Knicks. At least until more roster movement comes in Toronto, adding Immanuel Quickley has created a more competent Raptors’ offense.
Those trend lines suggest clear value in our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview the Raptors vs the Warriors on Sunday, January 7, with tip set for 8:30 ET.
Raptors vs Warriors odds
Raptors vs Warriors predictions
Immanuel Quickley’s Toronto debut was only fine. In a three-point win against the Cavaliers, the point guard shot just 5 of 13 from the field, scoring 14 points while dishing out three assists in 28 minutes. But more importantly, the Raptors scored 124 points that night, a number they had reached only eight times through their first 32 games, with five of those coming against the five worst defenses in the league by defensive rating.
Cleveland ranks in the Top 5 in defensive rating, per StatMuse, so that showing stood out. For that matter, it came following Toronto hanging 127 on Detroit — one of those five-worst defenses — in its first game without OG Anunoby.
Quickley played better in his next two games, including scoring 20 points with eight assists at the Kings on Friday. The Raptors may have lost, also falling half a point shy of a cover, but they scored 130 points against a middle-of-the-road defense.
Toronto’s offense is functioning that much better with the addition of a viable ball handler and creator in Quickley, not to mention he has shot 44% from deep while averaging more than eight threes per game in this small sample size.
Focusing on Quickley should make sense for a bit longer yet, and with his assists ticking upward in each of his three games with the Raptors, that makes more sense tonight.
For that matter, the Golden State Warriors defense can hardly be trusted these days. Losing Draymond Green obviously cost the Warriors a key piece of continuity, and while he is working his way back to the court now, the four-time NBA champion will not play tonight.
Klay Thompson is no longer the Klay Thompson of yore. And now Golden State has lost Chris Paul for the next month-plus.
This was already a Bottom-10 defense in the league. Now it may become worse.
That downturn has not yet been fully realized, just like Quickley’s immediate — one could say, quick — impact has not been properly recognized. Combining those two trends should yield a profitable approach via Quickley’s assists prop.
My best bet: Immanuel Quickley Over 3.5 assists (-160 at PointsBet)
Raptors vs Warriors same-game parlay
Immanuel Quickley Over 3.5 assists
Immanuel Quickley 4+ made threes
Over 237
Quickley appears to have been given an immediate green light by Toronto head coach Darko Rajakovic. Through three games, that has come at Dennis Schroder’s expense. How much so? Schroder’s props are not yet widely available early on Sunday afternoon.
Schroder has gone 2 of 12 from deep in this three-game sample set, about two fewer threes than he would have taken in a three-game stretch before Quickley arrived.
As long as Quickley is chucking, there should be value in his threes, and facing the Warriors’ slipping defense will enhance that.
For that matter, there was an intention here of grabbing a Raptors’ team total. Before Quickley joined the roster, Toronto ranked just above the bottom third of the league in offensive rating. In the last three games, it has ranked No. 11. Yes, the sample size needs to be noted yet again, but a team’s offensive rating jumping five points stands out.
With that team total not yet widely available, the correlation between it and the game total makes obvious sense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Raptors vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread has bounced between Warriors -2 and -2.5 since opening Saturday evening. Paul’s injury probably hardly impacts the spread, but it could alter Golden State’s hopes in a close game.
That has already been a worry for the Warriors, going just 3-7 against the spread as short favorites of fewer than six points. Worse yet, Golden State is just 3-7 straight up as a favorite of six points or fewer.
This total opened at 237.5 before climbing to 238.5 briefly on Sunday morning, then resettling at 237. With the Warriors defense struggling — that is not hyperbole; it ranks No. 22 this season — no total should feel safe in Golden State games.
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Raptors vs Warriors betting trend to know
Golden State is just 7-12-1 ATS at home this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Warriors.
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Raptors vs Warriors game info
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, January 7, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, NBC Sports Bay Area |
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