Rockets vs Kings Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

Malik Monk can expect a better 3-point shooting percentage soon as his recent form has been less accurate, though more rooted in volume, than his earlier numbers. Against a tired Rockets team, the Kings guard can take an efficient step forward.

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst
Jan 16, 2025 • 15:14 ET • 4 min read

NBA

Match starts: 3 hrs
SAC
47 %
HOU
53 %
EXPERT PICK - PROP
Malik Monk Over 2.5 made 3s (-120) Malik Monk Over 2.5 made 3s (-120)
Read Analysis
Malik Monk Sacramento Kings NBA
Photo By - Imagn Images.

The Sacramento Kings’ winning streak under interim head coach Doug Christie came to an end after seven games on Tuesday in Milwaukee. But Sacramento is expected to return to those winning ways against the Houston Rockets tonight, in some part because the visitors are on the second night of a back-to-back.

My Rockets vs. Kings prediction focuses on one particular Sacramento asset, one that has improved under Christie.

Get your NBA picks in before the tip at 10 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 16.

Rockets vs Kings prediction

My best bet
Malik Monk Over 2.5 threes (-120 at bet365)

My analysis
The greatest difference in the Sacramento Kings since Doug Christie took over for Mike Brown, aside from the mere joy of winning games, is their offense. Sacramento’s offensive rating in the last nine games has been 118.0, more than a bucket up from 114.4 in the season’s first 31 games.

The defense has also improved, 111.8 in rating from 112.9, but that offensive jump stands out.

That will tend to happen when your best shooter shoots more often. Since the coaching change, Malik Monk has taken 8.3 threes per game, though making just 30.3% of them. Under Brown, he was taking just 6.7 threes per game, making 35.4% of them.

Monk’s poor shooting should be chalked up as an aberration. He has shot at least 35% from deep in each of his last four seasons. His recent struggles will regress toward that mean, an encouraging suggestion.

Taking more threes will be part of that. Monk has shot at least seven times from beyond the arc in six of his eight games with Christie at the helm. Most notably, he took 11 at Boston and 12 against the Grizzlies. Those kinds of shot profiles were largely lacking while Brown set the terms.

There may be worry backing Monk tonight, a bothersome groin listing him as probable, and facing a Houston Rockets defense giving up only 34.6 looks from deep per night, the second-lowest figure in the NBA. But "probable" obviously means Monk is likely to play, and the Rockets are on the second night of a back-to-back. If fatigue shows up anywhere, it is chasing someone like Monk around the perimeter.

Rockets vs Kings same-game parlay

Malik Monk Over 2.5 threes

Domantas Sabonis Under 18.5 points

Domantas Sabonis Over 6.5 assists

The Kings’ offensive rating has climbed in part because Domantas Sabonis is shooting less. Yes, shooting less. In the mold of his father, Sabonis may be the best playmaking big man in the NBA aside from Nikola Jokic.

He was taking 13.7 field goals per game before the coaching change, a number ticking down to 13.0 since. That might not seem like much, but Sabonis taking one less shot per game is noticeable. And his scoring average has fallen 2.3 points in his nine games with Christie in the first chair on the bench, in line with the shooting change.

Meanwhile, Sabonis is moving the ball more, averaging 7.2 assists, compared to 6.0 through his first 28 games of the season. Sabonis has notched at least seven assists in seven of nine games in the last few weeks.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Rockets vs Kings odds

Rockets vs Kings live odds

Rockets vs Kings opening odds

  • Spread: Houston +2.5 | Sacramento -2.5
  • Moneyline: Houston +120 | Sacramento -140
  • Over/Under: Over 227 | Under 227

Odds courtesy of bet365

Rockets vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis

  • The Kings were set as 2.5-point favorites on Wednesday evening, a number that climbed to just -3 before nightfall.
  • The spread pushed to -4 during the night, waffling some at -3.5 on Thursday morning.
  • The total opened at 227 and initially rose to 227.5 before a drop to 224.5 early on Thursday.
  • The total then bounced to 226 and even 226.5 before settling at 225. To some extent, that wild movement feels like bettors being unsure how to handle Houston on the second night of a back-to-back though last night’s game in Denver was relatively stress-free.

Rockets vs Kings trend

The Rockets have played seven back-to-backs so far this season. On the second night of those, five of seven Unders have cashed. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Kings.

How to watch Rockets vs Kings

Location: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California
Date: Thursday, 1-16-2025
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

Rockets vs Kings latest injuries

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Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst

Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds.

In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets.

While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.

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