The Denver Nuggets look dangerous. They’re 20-11, winners of three straight, and currently sit atop the Western Conference standings. Their foes for Christmas Day, the Phoenix Suns, are headed in the diametrically opposite direction.
Newly purchased Phoenix is approaching free fall and has been incapable of playing competitive ball without Devin Booker in the lineup. Denver meanwhile has recaptured its defensive edge a bit lately and looks ready to rise to the level of a legitimate title contender.
Our NBA betting picks and predictions for Suns vs. Nuggets shine a light on the stylistic transformation of Aaron Gordon, who has quietly become one of the NBA’s most efficient scorers.
Suns vs Nuggets best odds
Suns vs Nuggets picks and predictions
When you ask someone about the Denver Nuggets roster, basically without fail the first three names mentioned will be Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. in some order. But for diehards and keen observers of the Mile High City, it’s the play of Aaron Gordon this season that is second only to Jokic’s in importance.
Gordon was the missing piece, whose acquisition via trade from the Orlando Magic in the 2020-21 season was seen as the finishing touch on Denver’s championship-caliber roster. And with Gordon in the lineup, the Nuggets looked like world beaters — until Murray and eventually MPJ succumbed to injuries.
Murray and MPJ are now working their way back, but Gordon has been ever present and ever improving. He’s completely transformed the way he plays to maximize his effectiveness around Jokic and as a direct result, he’s in the midst of a career year as a pro.
Per Cleaning the Glass, Gordon is scoring 135.1 points per 100 shot attempts, which puts him in the 99th percentile among all forwards. He’s averaging 17.1 points on 67.1% true shooting, including a ridiculous 68.2% on twos. Gordon was known for being a streaky shooter from the outside, and instead of continuing to chuck from deep with mixed results, he’s turned into a full-time interior bruiser.
He’s learned to play off Jokic beautifully too. He’s one of the best and most prolific scorers off cuts, scoring 1.56 points per possession on such plays per Synergy.
One of the Suns' weaknesses that has been exposed during this recent skid is their lack of athleticism and toughness. They don’t have the physicality to contain someone like Gordon without Jae Crowder (or a suitable replacement) on the roster. They’ll struggle enough to contain Jokic dominating the painted area, and when they’re forced to double, more often than not Gordon will be grabbing himself an easy shot at the rim.
Over his last five games, Gordon is averaging 19 points per game on 59% from the field and 40% from deep. Nothing about this Phoenix team’s play of late makes me think he’ll do any worse on Christmas Day.
My best bet: Aaron Gordon Over 16.5 points (+100)
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Suns vs Nuggets spread analysis
Uh oh, the Nuggets are suddenly playing defense. This team is 20-11 on the year despite ranking as the sixth-worst defense on the season because Jokic (and Denver’s collective offense) has just been that good.
But now they’ve put together a three-game winning streak on the backs of true two-way basketball. They’ve played at the level of both a Top-10 offense and defense over the last six games, the first such stretch they’ve managed this season.
Jokic is quietly pulling into the lead of the MVP race despite all cries about voter fatigue and the impossibility of him adding a third-straight trophy. They’re a formidable team even if they’re just 3-7 against the spread in their last 10.
The Suns limp into this Christmas Day matchup on a two-game losing streak, including a loss to the Washington Wizards and a blowout loss to Memphis at home in a game that was never competitive.
They seemingly can’t play even competent ball without Devin Booker available and reading the tea leaves, I’m guessing that Book is unlikely to suit up on December 25. Given the Suns' recent difficulties I’d lean Nuggets -4.5.
Suns vs Nuggets Over/Under analysis
At 230.5, this total is the largest on the board for the five-game Christmas Day slate. It’s hard to feel too confident about the state of this Phoenix offense without knowing definitively one way or the other about Devin Booker’s status, but even if he plays, this line seems a touch too high.
The Nuggets have been subject to some absurd totals recently, and sportsbooks have been slow to adjust to their increasingly effective defense. That’s contributed to the Under cashing in four straight Nuggets' games.
Denver throttled the Memphis Grizzlies on December 20, holding them to just 91 points. Phoenix has way fewer weapons at the moment than the Grizz do, so unless t gets some serious positive news concerning Booker and Cameron Payne on Christmas Eve, I’d think Under is the play here.
Suns vs Nuggets betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in the Nuggets' last 4 overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Nuggets.
Suns vs Nuggets game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Sunday, December 25, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC, ESPN, Sportsnet |
