Thunder vs Celtics Picks and Predictions: Tatum Keeps Cruising For Boston

The Boston Celtics will look to extend their six-game winning streak as they welcome the Oklahoma City Thunder to TD Garden on Monday night.

Jayson Tatum has been powering the Celtics through their recent run, which has brought Boston’s record to 10-3 on the season. Tatum scored 43 points in Boston’s 117-108 win over the Detroit Pistons on Saturday.

If Tatum keeps playing as well as he has in the early going this season, the Celtics should be able to win again on Monday. We’ll look at what he’ll bring to the table tonight in our NBA betting picks and predictions for Thunder vs. Celtics on November 14.

Thunder vs Celtics best odds

Thunder vs Celtics picks and predictions

The Celtics have been dealing with a number of injuries to significant players as of late. Malcolm Brogdon, Jaylen Brown, and Al Horford all missed Saturday’s game, for instance. Yet they’ve been able to continue winning behind the efforts of Jayson Tatum, who is enjoying perhaps the best start of his career.

On the season, Tatum is averaging 32.3 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game, well above his career totals. He’s shooting the ball at 50% from the field, the most efficient number he has ever put up.

In other words, Tatum has been carrying the Celtics on his back, especially during the current six-game winning streak. With Brogdon out again on Monday, and Horford and Brown potentially limited (though likely playing) with their injuries, it’s a good bet that Tatum will carry the load against the Thunder as well.

That’s enough for me to immediately look at Tatum’s points total tonight. The consensus line sets his Over/Under for points at 30.5. Even at first glance, that looks low, considering how he has been scoring as of late and the continued injury issues on the Celtics.

Tonight’s opponent doesn’t seem like a problem for Tatum, either. The Thunder rank 22nd in the NBA in points allowed, giving up 115.5 per night to opponents. They also play reasonably fast, rating seventh in the league in pace factor. We can expect plenty of scoring between these two teams tonight, and plenty of opportunities for Tatum to pad his stat line.

Tatum has scored at least 31 points in eight of his 13 games this year. He’s also done so in four straight games heading into Monday. He’s managing to put up big numbers right now regardless of his workload, averaging about a point per minute over the last four games. 

There’s absolutely no reason to think Tatum will slow down against Oklahoma City on Monday. No streak lasts forever, but I fully expect the Boston forward to continue pouring in the points against the Thunder tonight. Let’s take the best odds we can find on the Over for Tatum’s point total.

My best bet: Jayson Tatum Over 30.5 points (-106)

Thunder vs Celtics spread analysis

Boston opened tonight’s game as an 11-point favorite in NBA odds. As of late morning on Monday, the most common line had jumped up to Celtics -12.

That number reflects just how well the Celtics are playing right now, especially at home. Boston is 5-1 straight up at TD Garden and has gone 4-2 against the spread in home games. 

The Thunder are just 6-7 on the year, including a 2-4 road record. Their biggest problem on Monday night will be trying to stop a phenomenal Boston offense led by Tatum. 

The Celtics lead the NBA in points per game at 119.5, despite the fact that they don’t play particularly quickly. They’ve done so with incredibly efficient shooting. Boston is shooting 48.4% from the field, including 39% from 3-point range. 

For Oklahoma City to stay in this game, they’ll need a huge performance from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 31.1 points per game. But even in a shootout, the Thunder will have a tough time keeping up with the Celtics.

While the line is big, I still like Boston -12 at home. Both teams have been solid ATS this year — Boston is 7-6, and Oklahoma City is 8-5 — but the Celtics have played especially well at the Garden, and this matchup is simply ugly for the Thunder on the defensive end.

Thunder vs Celtics Over/Under analysis

The total for tonight’s game opened at 227.5 and has drifted upwards a bit since then. Most books are now setting the Over/Under at 228.5, one of the highest totals of the night.

That makes sense based on a number of factors I’ve already discussed. Boston scores a lot of points, while the Thunder aren’t particularly good at slowing opponents. Oklahoma City also plays at a fast pace and can also score well. The Thunder are averaging 115.8 points per game, ninth-best in the NBA.

A simplistic look at the averages for both teams would set the Over/Under at around 231, as these teams both frequently play high-scoring games. Digging into the matchup only makes me more interested in the Over, as I particularly think Boston will be able to score big on Monday night.

I’ve spent a lot of time talking about Tatum, but the fact that Horford and Brown should also be back in action on Monday night should cause even more headaches for the Thunder. I also expect Oklahoma City to push the pace in an effort to draw the Celtics into a shootout. That probably won’t earn the Thunder a win, but it does mean more points at the end of the night. The Over is the play here.

Thunder vs Celtics betting trend to know

The Over is 5-1-1 in the Celtics’ last seven games. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Celtics.

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