Thunder vs Lakers Picks and Predictions: Shai Helps Sway Moneyline

Two teams fighting for spots in the Western Conference play-in tournament will face off in a crucial head-to-head matchup when the Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday.

Both the Thunder and the Lakers have identical 36-37 records, and are among six teams that are within one game of each other between the No. 7 and No. 12 slots in the West. These two teams have already met up twice this season, with the road side winning on both occasions.

This is a critical game for both squads, and feels like a contest that could be up in the air until the final seconds. We’ll break down how this one might play out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Thunder vs. Lakers on March 24.

Thunder vs Lakers best odds

Thunder vs Lakers picks and predictions

The Lakers are managing to stick around in the playoff race even without LeBron James in the lineup. Since James injured his right foot on February 26, Los Angeles has managed to put up a 7-5 record. While Lakers fans will still hope that James can make it back for the end of the regular season and a potential play-in tournament, the team is keeping its head above water for now.

The Thunder aren’t waiting on their superstar to get back on the court. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is scoring 31.4 ppg this season and continues to enjoy a breakout season. In the month of March, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 33.9 points on 54.4% shooting, and has hit the 30-point mark in seven of his eight games. 

Those efforts have helped Oklahoma City get back into the playoff race. While they lost 127-105 at the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday, the Thunder have won eight of 11 to put themselves on the edge of a playoff berth. With nine games remaining in the regular season, they could easily land anywhere from safely in the playoffs to outside the play-in tournament.

While both teams are playing reasonably well heading into tonight’s game, Oklahoma City is certainly the hotter team. They’ve also arguably been the better team overall this season, posting a +1.2 point differential on the year, while Los Angeles has hovered right around an even zero. These two teams profile very similarly on offense and defense, and both like to play at a quick pace. 

It’s been clear that these teams have some level of comfort against each other in the first two matchups. Both teams have won on the road in the other’s building, and both games were close. The Thunder beat the Lakers by three in Los Angeles back on February 7, then the Lakers returned the favor without LeBron in the lineup, posting a 123-117 win on March 1 in Oklahoma City.

Regardless of how the Lakers have managed without their star, we have to assume that the Lakers are taking at least a slight hit with James off the court. There’s also the fact that Los Angeles is one of the few NBA teams without a dramatic home/away split this year. The Lakers are just 20-17 at home, hardly what you’d expect even from a .500 team in today’s league.

Yet, despite the way Oklahoma City is playing, the LeBron injury, and the two close games these teams have already put in the books, the market is making the Lakers a fairly significant favorite. My guess is that this is due to the fact that the Thunder are playing a back-to-back in LA, but the team has been in the city all week, and shouldn’t be too impacted by the consecutive games — especially with Gilgeous-Alexander only playing 27 minutes last night.

This game feels pretty close to a tossup to me, yet we can get a big price on Oklahoma City to win the game outright. I’m taking the Thunder on the moneyline.

My best bet: Thunder moneyline (+190)

Thunder vs Lakers spread analysis

The Lakers opened tonight’s game as a 5.5-point favorite. Bettors seem pretty happy with that number, as it remains the consensus line, with a couple books tilting the odds ever so slightly towards Oklahoma City rather than changing the number.

The Thunder have been crushing the spread this year, putting up a 43-27-3 record against the spread. The Lakers have been about average for bettors, coming into this game with a 35-37-1 ATS mark.

It’s hard to find much to separate these two teams. I’ve already talked about some of the raw numbers, but even rating systems tend to lump them together. Sagarin, for instance, have the Lakers at No. 19 in the NBA, with the Pelicans right behind them at No. 20. Most Elo systems have these teams as neighbors as well.

Unless you think that the Lakers really are better without LeBron James on the court — something that’s extremely hard to believe, even with an inconclusive small sample size that suggests they’re doing fine without him — that means we have to give the Thunder the edge over Los Angeles in a vacuum. Sure, the Lakers are at home, and Oklahoma City is on a back-to-back, but that only makes me think these teams are back to parity.

I’ve already said that my best bet tonight is to take the Thunder to win outright. However, getting 5.5 points on the spread is also a solid way to put money down on the game. If you’re not willing to back Oklahoma City on the moneyline, then at least take the Thunder and the points.

Thunder vs Lakers Over/Under analysis

Tonight’s total opened at 232.5 points. That number has remains the consensus Over/Under, though you’ll find a few sites at 233 if you look around.

That number is pretty much on the mark for these two teams this season. The Lakers are averaging around 233.2 points for their totals on the year, while the Thunder are only slightly higher at 233.8.

You could look at that number and think there’s a slight edge on the Over tonight, but even if you were beholden to those averages, that’s not enough of an advantage to overcome the vig. Further analysis will bring that number down slightly, anyway. The Lakers are playing a more patient game without LeBron in the lineup, and have only gone Over 232.5 three times in their last 12, with two of those games hitting 233 and 234. Scoring is definitely down in Los Angeles.

The Thunder have also played below tonight’s total in five of their last seven. When you consider that they’re playing the second game of a back-to-back, you have to figure they’ll tone down the pace somewhere as well.

Outside of the raw scoring averages, which are close to the number anyway, everything else about this game suggests a low-scoring affair. I’m backing the Under tonight.

Thunder vs Lakers betting trend to know

The Thunder are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Lakers.

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