Thunder vs Pelicans Picks and Predictions: Ingram Struggles to Hit Lofty Total

The New Orleans Pelicans welcome the Oklahoma City Thunder to the Big Easy for the No. 9 versus No. 10 NBA Play-In Tournament matchup in the West on Wednesday night.

Homecourt has been huge for NOLA this season, where the Pelicans post a profitable 23-17-1 ATS mark at Smoothie King Center. However, the last time these teams clashed in New Orleans, OKC walked away with a 110-96 victory as a 1-point road underdog on March 11.

Pelicans star forward Brandon Ingram was out of action for that game, and with him back in the lineup and a path to the postseason up for grabs (playing Minnesota for the No. 8 seed), New Orleans is a 5.5-point home favorite tonight.

I dissect the spread and Over/Under for this play-in tournament game and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Thunder vs. Pelicans on April 12.

Thunder vs Pelicans best odds

Thunder vs Pelicans picks and predictions

The Thunder avoided NOLA standout Brandon Ingram in all but one of their previous four matchups this season. 

Ingram missed the most recent meeting on March 11 with a sprained ankle but did drop 34 points, along with four rebounds and one assist, on OKC in his lone contest with the Thunder, a 103-100 win in Oklahoma City on February 13. 

Ingram enters the play-in with the hot hand, having scored 42 points in the finale with Minnesota on Sunday, and his projected output for the play-in game is massive. Books have his points prop at 30.5 O/U and his combo prop for points + rebounds + assists is as tall as 45.5.

Ingram is a stat sheet stuffer, averaging 29 points, 8.4 assists and 6.4 rebounds during New Orleans’ 9-3 SU run the past dozen games. He’s surpassed his combo prop total on those statistics in seven of his last 10, but tonight’s total may be a bit too ambitious for the Duke product.

While Ingram has laid waste to his points + rebounds + assists prop in recent weeks, he hasn’t come close to a projected total as tall as 45.5 (tallest being 42.5 vs. Sacramento) and has stayed below 45 combined stats in five of his last eight outings.

Given the drop in the total — from 231.5 to as low as 226.5 — the market is projecting the Pelicans to impose their slower tempo on tonight’s game. New Orleans turned the March 11 meeting into a slog, with a pace rating of 99.5, and NOLA has leaned on that tempered tempo in the home stretch of the season (98.27).

Ingram has the chops to go Over his prop totals tonight, however, the pace of play may not let him. Some player projections have him pumping out just 38.9 total points + rebounds + assists while I’m a bit more forgiving on the higher end at 43. Either way, it’s below his combo prop of 45.5 (Under -115).

Some shops are shrinking their opening O/U from 45.5 to 44.5 for Ingram’s PRA prop tonight, so shop around and go below the bigger totals. 

My best bet: Brandon Ingram points + rebounds + assists Under 45.5 (-115)

Thunder vs Pelicans spread analysis

Books opened this spread as short as New Orleans -4.5 on the weekend when the play-in matchups were set, and it has since risen to -5.5 with early play on the home side.

As mentioned, NOLA has been a much stronger team at home. It boasts a net rating of +5.1 as a host and is one of the top defenses when it comes to defending homecourt. Since the All-Star break, New Orleans has checked visitors to an average of less than 110 points against, going 7-4 SU and 6-4-1 ATS inside the Smoothie King Center in that span.

The Pels backed into the play-in with a loss to Minnesota in the season finale, but have been one of the hotter teams in the league over the past month, riding a 9-3 SU record and 8-3-1 ATS count in their final dozen games of the regular season.

The Thunder test the NOLA defense with their up-tempo pace and aggressive interior attack, looking to run in transition and score high-percentage shots at the rim. Oklahoma City was able to record 48 points in the paint in its win over the Pelicans on March 11 and that approach also led to 32 free throw attempts (making 27).

Oklahoma City looked in danger of dropping out of the play-in qualifier with a three-game losing skid to begin April (0-3 ATS), but took wins over Utah and Memphis (2-0 ATS) in the final two contests — along with Dallas’ belly flop — to make the cut.

While OKC won the most recent matchup between these clubs (and did so without Brandon Ingram in the Pelicans’ lineup), New Orleans won the first three meetings (2-1 ATS).

Thunder vs Pelicans Over/Under analysis

This Over/Under total opened as big as 231.5 points over the weekend, but has drawn Under play and is sitting as low as 226.5 points on Wednesday afternoon. According to BetMGM books, 75% of ticket count and 85% of the handle is riding on the Under.

The Pelicans are one of the premier defenses in the NBA, but complement that with a methodical pace on offense, which chews up the shot clock and limits opponents’ touches.

New Orleans has found a much lower gear in the home stretch of the season, boasting a 22nd-rated pace (98.45) over the previous 23 contests. While the Pels are an efficient offense, that methodical approach is leading to an average of 113 points per contest since the All-Star break.

It’s no surprise that the slow-mo attack and stingy defense has produced solid Under returns for total bettors, with NOLA going 6-17 Over/Under in those games. That includes an Under result in the March 11 meeting between these teams, with the 110-98 final staying below the closing total of 232 points.

Oklahoma City is somewhat the opposite, with a frenetic pace on offense and a ho-hum defense that does not travel well. The Thunder are 46-36 Over/Under on the season, but just 20-21 O/U away from home due to is output plummeting from 120.8 points at home to just 114.1 on the road.

The Pelicans and Thunder have gone Under in three of their four matchups this season, with totals ranging from 232 to 234.5 points, making tonight’s total of 226.5 a significant downtick.

Thunder vs Pelicans betting trend to know

The Under is 20-7 in Pelicans’ last 27 overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Pelicans.

Thunder vs Pelicans game info

Thunder vs Pelicans key injuries

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