Timberwolves vs Clippers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Ant Can't Climb the Hill

The Minnesota Timberwolves’ quest to make the first NBA Finals in franchise history was dealt a serious blow last week when Karl-Anthony Towns underwent surgery on his torn meniscus. The Wolves have to soldier on without him for at least the rest of the regular season, and after a nice win against the Indiana Pacers they’ve since dropped two straight.

Their efforts to stay afloat in the Top 4 of the Western Conference don’t get any easier on Tuesday, March 12, as they face fellow a fellow contender in the Los Angeles Clippers. L.A. is coming off a truly punishing back-to-back and will be looking to get back into the win column.

The NBA odds have pegged this to be a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair. My NBA picks and predictions for Timberwolves vs. Clippers expect Anthony Edwards to face a stiff challenge with KAT out of the mix.

Timberwolves vs Clippers odds

Timberwolves vs Clippers predictions

When it was announced that the Minnesota Timberwolves would have to do without their All-Star power forward for at least the next four weeks, naturally the prop lines for Anthony Edwards began to soar. He turned in a banger of a first game as a one-man band, adding 44 points and a game-sealing block against the Indiana Pacers.

But the Pacers are one of the NBA’s worst defenses, and Ant’s job is not always going to be that easy.

Of course, there is logic for Ant’s lines climbing this high. Karl-Anthony Towns used a little over 25% of all offensive possessions while on the court for the Timberwolves, and there isn’t a ready replacement for him on hand. Naturally, oddsmakers project Ant to take most of the shots KAT’s absence leaves on the table.

And I’m sure that’s how the Timberwolves are generally hoping their offense will function until Towns can return. But other teams are only too aware that the Wolves were a borderline Bottom-10 offense even with KAT in the fold, and if they can put pressure on Edwards, there is so little offense anywhere else on the roster that they become easy to beat.

The Los Angeles Lakers just executed this game plan to perfection on Sunday, and the Cleveland Cavaliers made Ant a similar focus the game before that. He scored just 25 and 19 in the two losses, respectively.

And unlike those teams, the Los Angeles Clippers have the personnel and coaching tendencies that suggest they will hedge, trap, and outright blitz Edwards to keep him from creating his own offense. 

Tyronn Lue is famous for the way he built defensive game plans to deal with the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals, and forcing the ball out of Steph Curry’s hands was a massive emphasis. The rest of the Timberwolves roster isn’t nearly as threatening as those teams were, so putting two on the ball over and over again is likely a trade he’ll be happy to make.

The Clippers also have much better defensive personnel to execute such a scheme. Having taken off the second night of the back-to-back on Sunday, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George should both be reasonably fresh. PJ Tucker was also brought back into the rotation. 

While nobody on the Clippers is a perfect one-on-one answer for Ant, they have a lot of bodies that can make him work in isolation and more that can execute a proper double team.

Because I suspect that L.A. will make anyone else beat them on Tuesday, these Anthony Edwards odds are much too high.

My best bet: Anthony Edwards Under 30.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)

Timberwolves vs Clippers same-game parlay

Anthony Edwards Under 30.5 points

Timberwolves team total Under 105.5 points

Paul George Under 21.5 points

+305 at DraftKings

It’s unclear, but something is not right with George.

He’s drifting through plays not demanding the ball on offense, and generally giving poor effort combined with poor execution. Maybe the knee injury he’s been nursing is still sapping his ability to move or simply psychologically has him down, but he is playing nowhere near his superstar form of late.

Hot shooting from three has buoyed what has otherwise been a series of weak performances. His lack of focus is showing at the free-throw line, where he’s shooting below 70% over his last five games.

Given the quality and depth of the Timberwolves' defense, I don’t expect PG to play with the requisite force to snap out of whatever funk he’s been in on Tuesday.

As I’m already betting against Ant’s ability to succeed as a solo act against the Clippers' defense, it’s a natural synergy to bet against their offense on the whole. The Wolves have a 115.9 offensive rating on the season, which is already middling.

But in lineups without Towns? That drops to 110.8 per Cleaning the Glass, one of the worst marks in the NBA. That is without accounting for how much harder it is going to get now that teams can game plan exclusively to take away Edwards as well as the potential that he will fatigue.

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Timberwolves vs Clippers spread and Over/Under analysis

After climbing as high as -7.5, the Clippers have settled in as -6.5 favorites at most oddsmakers for today’s tilt against the Timberwolves.

The Timberwolves are going through it right now. In addition to the Towns' injury, they’ve dropped to 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games. Mind you, Los Angeles hasn’t been much better at just 3-7 ATS.

While it was a surprise that both George and Leonard didn’t play the last game, having routinely appeared in back-to-backs all season long for the first time as Clippers, I still think these are not serious injuries. 

More likely, they remain on the injury report ahead of Tuesday to avoid the ire of the NBA head player participation program enforcers. They probably also didn’t play partly in protest of the schedule makers screwing them by making them play two games within 22 hours. 

With those two in the fold, this line makes sense and I don’t see significant value on either end.

Tuesday’s total has been dropping precipitously. It opened at a modest 219.5, but at most sportsbooks has fallen as many as four points to 215.5.

With Towns out, the Wolves playing a traditional lineup where they lean more into Kyle Anderson might improve an already stingy defense. The Clippers also have one of the NBA’s best defenses, and they’ve been particularly strong at home. That’s contributed to the Under going 18-12-1 in Clippers home games this season.

Timberwolves vs Clippers betting trend to know

The Timberwolves are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Clippers.

Timberwolves vs Clippers game info

Timberwolves vs Clippers latest injuries

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