The Orlando Magic held onto the No. 4 line in the Eastern Conference during Paolo Banchero’s two-plus month absence due to an oblique injury, but the blossoming star’s possible return tonight will probably not be enough against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Orlando continues to be shorthanded, and Banchero is not going to lean into a full workload on his first night back. Those realities create Minnesota value in these free NBA picks, but my Timberwolves vs. Magic predictions focus on one specific visiting player as he sees more and more of a role in the Minnesota rotation. Tip comes at 7 ET on Thursday, January 9.
Timberwolves vs Magic prediction
My best bet
Donte DiVincenzo Over 10.5 points (-130 at bet365)
My analysis
The Orlando Magic rotation has taken too many hits to maintain perimeter defensive continuity. Paolo Banchero’s hopeful return will help the defense as a whole, but he is not one to slow point guards, so he will be little help against Donte DiVincenzo in his growing starting role.
Without Jalen Suggs, Gary Harris, Mo Wagner and Franz Wagner, plus Banchero not being at full strength, the Magic turn to the likes of Cole Anthony for more than 35 minutes a night. Caleb Houstan and Tristan da Silva will be able to provide help on defense and Anthony Black played 26 minutes just three nights ago.
Those are all NBA players and deserve no disrespect, but the fact of the matter is, Orlando’s perimeter defense is not as vaunted right now as is the team’s general design.
That should be to DiVincenzo’s benefit.
He started the last two games in place of Mike Conley, a decision that sparked two wins. DiVincenzo’s minutes tick up, but not by much, in this new lineup. What is notable is the advantageous matchups he enjoys as opponents need to more focus on Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle than on him.
As a result, DiVincenzo has taken eight 3-pointers in each of the last two games. He had reached that mark in just three of his previous 19 games.
A driving piece of the Minnesota Timberwolves’ trading for DiVincenzo was his shooting, both in quality and in quantity. Inserting DiVincenzo into the starting lineup has seemingly again unlocked his volume.
Taking his Over 2.5 made threes prop (-110 at bet365) would make much the same sense, but the Over 10.5 points approach is a bit more conservative, despite being only 20 cents more expensive.
Timberwolves vs Magic same-game parlay
Donte DiVincenzo Over 10.5 points
Anthony Edwards Over 4.5 assists
Over 199.5 points
Anthony Edwards becoming more of a playmaker might not be a development you instinctively tie directly to Mike Conley moving to the second unit, but it has been part of Minnesota’s intention. With Conley not starting, Edwards initiates that many more possessions. In the first game with this lineup, he notched eight assists despite also taking 29 shots.
That fell the next night, only three assists, but that was in part because DiVincenzo went 4-of-12 from the field, outdone by Jaden McDaniels’ 2-of-9. If expecting DiVincenzo to play better, then it is also reasonable to expect Edwards’ assist tally to tick up.
This low total of 199.5 is the lowest of the NBA season thus far, and just decent Timberwolves shooting should be enough to propel toward the Over, particularly with Banchero probably bucket-hunting early in his tentative return.
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Timberwolves vs Magic odds
Timberwolves vs Magic live odds
Timberwolves vs Magic opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota -3.5 | Orlando +3.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota -165 | Orlando +140
- Over/Under: Over 206.5 | Under 206.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Timberwolves vs Magic spread and Over/Under analysis
- Bettors apparently think bookmakers set this initial line incorrectly, a -3.5 opener favoring the Timberwolves reaching -5.5 by sunrise and then -7 during the lunch hour.
- With Paolo Banchero questionable all along, it is hard to fathom he has moved this line so much, even as the spread has crept back down to -5.5 in the early afternoon.
- This total opened on Wednesday night at 206.5 and has been hammered down. It reached 203 by sunrise, and then continued to fall, valleying at 199.5 late in the morning.
Timberwolves vs Magic trend
If this total stays below 200, it will be the first such pregame total of this NBA season. The previous low total was less than two weeks ago and featured these same Magic, a pregame total of 202.5 against the Nets, the game ending with a 102-101 Orlando victory. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Magic.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Magic
| Location: | Kia Center, Orlando, FL |
| Date: | Thursday, 1-9-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FanDuel Sports Network - North, FanDuel Sports Network - Florida |
Timberwolves vs Magic latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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