The Minnesota Timberwolves are down 2-0 despite having led for more than 77% of the Western Conference Final’s minutes. Losing to the Dallas Mavericks in Game 2 thanks to a Luka Doncic 3-pointer with only 3.1 seconds remaining should not completely overshadow Minnesota's success.
That success has just not yielded wins.
It may not tonight, either, but some adjustments are in order. Building a same-game parlay around an anticipated adjustment can create value, so let’s add one to our free NBA picks and Timberwolves vs. Mavericks predictions on Sunday, May 26.
Timberwolves vs Mavericks parlay picks May 26
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 4.5 points
- P.J. Washington Over 2.5 threes
- Luka Doncic Over 9.5 assists
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Best Timberwolves vs Mavericks parlay picks for Friday
NBA parlay pick
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 4.5 points
P.J. Washington Over 2.5 threes
Luka Doncic Over 9.5 assists
The Minnesota Timberwolves need more defense. That sentence has not been true at any point in the 2023-24 season, but it has been in the Western Conference Finals thus far, even as the Dallas Mavericks have scored just 108.5 points per game.
Playing more Nickeil Alexander-Walker and less Naz Reid or even less Mike Conley will help the Timberwolves defense. Alexander-Walker’s shot has abandoned him, going 0-for-11 from deep and 3 of 16 from the field in his last three games, and his minutes have dropped off accordingly.
But Alexander-Walker shot 39.1% from deep in the regular season. That sample size should be trusted. And playing him more will give Minnesota another piece in slowing Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Playing Reid with Doncic on the court has cost the Timberwolves 30 points per 100 possessions.
Minnesota’s defense has been falling off as it sells out to cut into corner threes, which is understandable given the Mavericks shot more corner threes than any other team this season. Reid struggles to decide if he should help off the corner when Doncic drives or stay attached to the likes of P.J. Washington in the corner.
Well, that hasn’t worked. So the Timberwolves should force Washington to make his shots. Doing so will be risky, and Washington should make them. But that is the needed adjustment.
The combination of playing more Alexander-Walker and spending less time worrying about corner threes should lead to more Doncic assists, likely to shooters in the corner. The Thunder left Washington open plenty, and he hit at least three treys in three of six games — 23 of 49, 46.9% — and Doncic had at least 10 assists in the final three games of that series thanks to Oklahoma City’s defense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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