Alabama’s path to the SEC title game was clear. Beat Oklahoma as a two-touchdown favorite, then take out rival Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
But the Crimson Tide ended up in the ditch after a humiliating 24-3 loss to the Sooners and are now on the outside looking in for the College Football Playoff and the Tigers would love nothing more to put the final nail in Bama’s coffin.
My Auburn vs Alabama predictions explain why a motivated Tigers squad can keep this game close and low-scoring, at least early on.
Check out my college football picks for the Iron Bowl on Saturday, November 30.
Auburn vs Alabama prediction and best bet
My best bet
Under 26.5 First-Half Total (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Alabama Crimson Tide offense was cooking. They had outscored opponents 128-20 during their three-game winning streak heading into their matchup with the Oklahoma Sooners.
Then Jalen Milroe and the Crimson Tide broke on the wall that was Brent Venables’ defense. Oklahoma held Alabama to just three points and was scoreless over the final three-quarters of the game.
Milroe went just 11-for-26 for 164 yards with three interceptions and maybe more impressively held him to just seven yards on 15 attempts.
The loss hasn’t officially knocked Bama out of the College Football Playoff, but they will need a lot of things to go their way if they have any hope and it starts with winning a rivalry game against an Auburn Tigers team that is starting to feel pretty good about itself.
Auburn is just 2-5 in SEC play this season but has won three of its last four overall, including a thrilling 43-41 overtime victory over Texas A&M. And despite the 41 points allowed last week the Tigers’ defense has been pretty good.
Auburn enters this game ranked 18th in defensive success rate and 44th in opponent EPA/play. The Tigers are particularly stout against the rush, ranking 13th in success rate against the rush, and are eighth in the country allowing just 3.0 yards per carry.
Selling out to stop Milroe on the ground and force him to become a passer has seemingly been the key to stopping Alabama. In the Tide’s other two losses, Tennessee held him to 11 yards on 14 carries and Vanderbilt limited him to just 10 yards on seven carries. Auburn has the blueprint and the ability to do that.
Meanwhile, on offense, the Tigers will rely on star running back Jarquez Hunter, who has rumbled for 1,145 yards on 6.6 yards per carry. And running the ball is something all of those teams did successfully when defeating Alabama.
Running the football and playing good defense can mean only one thing. Another SEC first-half Under.
Alabama’s explosiveness gives me some worry when it comes to backing Auburn ATS or the full-game total but I like them to compete closely with their hated rival for at least the first half of the Iron Bowl.
Auburn vs Alabama same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 26.5 first-half
Payton Thorne 20+ rush yards
Jalen Milroe anytime TD
As noted, Alabama has really had issues with the running game recently. Tennessee running back Dylan Sampson rumbled all over them and most recently it was Oklahoma’s Xavier Robinson. But there has been another theme in all of Alabama’s losses, not containing the quarterback on the ground.
Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia ran for 56 yards. The Vols’ Nico Iamaleava went for 44. And Jackson Arnold went crazy last week going for 131.
Now, Payton Thorne probably isn't the same level of athlete as those guys but he has 241 rushing yards on the season and has hit at least 20 yards six times this season. I'll take him to get 20 against the Tide here.
While I like Auburn’s chances of slowing down Jalen Milroe in this matchup, I still like the Bama QB to find the end zone. He has only not scored in two of 11 games this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Auburn vs Alabama odds
Auburn vs Alabama live odds
Auburn vs Alabama opening odds
- Auburn vs. Alabama spread: Alabama -11.5
- Auburn vs. Alabama moneyline: Auburn +325, Alabama -425
- Auburn vs. Alabama Over/Under: 52
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Auburn vs Alabama spread and Over/Under analysis
- Alabama opened this year's edition of the Iron Bowl as 11.5-point favorites and that's where the spread remains as of Thursday afternoon.
- Alabama has dominated this rivalry game, winning eight of the last 10 meetings, but Auburn has been the better bet, going 5-3 ATS over the last eight.
- The total hit the board at 52 and has ticked up slightly to 52.5.
- Auburn is 2-5 O/U in SEC play this season while Alabama has cashed the Under in four consecutive conference games.
Auburn vs Alabama betting trend to know
Auburn has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games for +6.80 Units and a 49% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Auburn vs Alabama.
Auburn vs Alabama game info
| Location: | Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-30, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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