The Pittsburgh Steelers head to Paycor Stadium to face the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday afternoon.
Pittsburgh is half a game ahead of Baltimore in the AFC North standings and my Steelers vs. Bengals predictions are betting on the visitors to cover as short underdogs in this Week 13 clash.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this divisional showdown on December 1.
Steelers vs Bengals prediction
My best bet
Steelers +3 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Cincinnati Bengals may be fresh off a bye and desperate for a win, but it's tough to turn down the Pittsburgh Steelers catching a field goal.
The Steelers currently lead the division at 8-3, and while they've faced the second-weakest schedule in the league, the Bengals rank just 25th in strength of schedule themselves.
Against teams that are currently .500 or better, the Bengals have gone 0-6 straight up and 2-4 against the spread. Meanwhile, the Steelers have faced only three teams currently with winning records (the Chargers, Commanders, and Ravens), but ground out victories in all three of those contests.
Thanks to Joe Burrow and an explosive aerial attack, the Bengals are seventh in the league in offensive EPA. However, their offense has been one-dimensional and ranks just 30th in rush success rate. Burrow & Co. will have their hands full against a Pittsburgh defense that is fifth in the league in defensive EPA while ranking second in opponent passer rating (76.9)
On the other side of the ball, the Bengals are 29th in the league in defensive EPA and 31st in defensive rush success rate. Not being able to run the ball or stop the run is a terrible combination in a cold-weather game.
Steelers vs Bengals same-game parlay
Steelers alternate spread +3.5
Jaylen Warren Over 39.5 rushing yards
Under 48
Jaylen Warren has rushed for more than 40 yards in five straight games and had 11 carries for 45 yards last week. He's set to face a Bengals defense that struggles to stop the run, and the running back should see plenty of touches in another cold-weather game.
The Steelers are third in the league in scoring defense (16.9 ppg) but their offense is just 27th in success rate and has been heavily reliant on big plays. I expect them to run the ball to control the clock and keep Burrow off the field, which has me leaning toward the Under 48.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Steelers vs Bengals odds
Steelers vs Bengals live odds
Steelers vs Bengals opening odds
- Spread: Pittsburgh +2.5 | Cincinnati -2.5
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +125 | Cincinnati -150
- Over/Under: Over 47 | Under 47
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Steelers vs Bengals spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money came in on the Bengals and the Over, shifting the spread to that key number of -3 and moving the total to 48.
- The Steelers are fifth in the NFL in pass rush win rate while the Bengals are 26th in pass block win rate. Cincinnati left tackle Orlando Brown is also listed as questionable.
- Middle linebacker Logan Wilson leads the Bengals with 104 tackles but has missed practice all week due to a knee injury.
- The Steelers are 19th in the league in EPA/play and 30th in offensive success rate since Russell Wilson took over at QB in Week 7.
Steelers vs Bengals betting trend to know
Since 2015, Pittsburgh is 28-17-2 ATS as road underdogs. Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Bengals.
Steelers vs Bengals game info
| Location: | Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-1, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Steelers vs Bengals latest injuries
Steelers vs Bengals weather
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