The end-of-season playoff push is fully underway. The Nuggets are fighting for the No. 2 seed behind the Thunder, and the Wolves are doing their best to get out of the Play-In Tournament.
My Timberwolves vs. Nuggets predictions expect a high-scoring affair at Ball Arena as Northwest Division opponents clash for the third time this season. Read my NBA picks to see why you should bet the Over on Wednesday, March 12.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet: Over 236.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Denver Nuggets are 37-27-1 to the Over this season, and the Minnesota Timberwolves are 37-29. Denver has hit the Over at the fourth-highest percentage in the Association, and Minnesota has done so at the ninth-highest percentage.
The Nuggets have gone Over in 16 of 26 as the home favorite and in nine of 12 against division opponents. The Wolves are also 9-3 to the Over against division opponents and 7-5 as the road underdog. Both head-to-head matchups between these two teams this season have gone Over.
On the season, Denver has scored the third-most points per game at 121.5, and Minnesota has scored 112.8 (19th). Across the last 10, Denver has posted 121.1 points (5th), while Minnesota has climbed up to 120.1 (ninth).
The Nuggets’ 119.5 offensive rating is second-best in the Association, and the Wolves’ 114.5 offensive rating is 10th. Over the last 10, Denver’s offensive rating has dipped marginally to 119.2, while Minnesota’s has risen significantly to 119.4.
Minnesota sports the sixth-best defensive rating this season at 110.9. Across the last 10, however, the Wolves’ defensive rating has fallen to 114.7 (18th). Denver’s defensive rating of 119.3 is fifth-worst in that span.
Neither team is playing elite defense since the All-Star break, and both offenses are humming. Expect a high-scoring matchup in Denver.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Over 236.5
Nikola Jokic 13+ rebounds
Nuggets moneyline
Nikola Jokic is averaging exactly 13 boards per game this season, and he’s hit the Over on this line in 35 of 59 appearances. That includes seven straight and 10 of his last 11 heading into tonight’s primetime matchup with Minnesota. Jokic has hit the Over in 16 of 28 at home, and the Wolves have allowed the fifth-most rebounds across their last 10.
Minnesota has won and covered in five straight, but all of those wins were against teams with sub-.500 records. Despite the poor quality of play from opponents, the Wolves are still riding a hot streak, and they can certainly cover against the Nuggets in what should be a close game. I expect the Nuggets to pull out a win at home, and I’m far more comfortable betting the ML rather than the spread.
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Timberwolves vs Nuggets score prediction
Nuggets 119, Timberwolves 118
The Wolves have covered in five straight, but Denver has won 22 of its last 29 at home.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets odds
Timberwolves vs Nuggets live odds
Timberwolves vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +3.5 (-105) | Denver -3.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Minnesota +145 | Denver -170
- Over/Under: Over 236.5 (-110) | Under 236.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Timberwolves vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota has won and covered in five straight.
- Denver is 32-32-1 ATS.
- The Timberwolves have hit the Over in three of the last five.
- The Nuggets are 37-27-1 to the Over this season.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets trend
The Timberwolves have hit the team total Over in 22 of their last 30 games (+12.65 Units / 37% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Nuggets
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Timberwolves vs Nuggets latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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