When two of the NBA’s most disappointing teams of the season meet, it becomes a question of just who is more lost. The answer is clearly the New Orleans Pelicans. At some point, a discussion of a firesale must be considered, given New Orleans owns its first-rounder this year, and the race to the bottom of the NBA will be more miserable than usual with Cooper Flagg as the reward.
That will not be part of tonight’s game, but it should certainly put this Minnesota Timberwolves season in perspective. Minnesota is still a Play-In team, and it's thus favored by multiple buckets tonight despite being on the second half of a back-to-back. Looking at last night’s win and new lineup rotations creates some value for these free NBA picks, lineup rotations that may spur the Wolves forward.
My Timberwolves vs. Pelicans predictions will fade a player returning to the city that sparked a career resurgence. Tip comes at 8 ET on Tuesday, January 7.
Timberwolves vs Pelicans prediction
My best bet
Julius Randle Under 18.5 points (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The introduction here was a bit unfair. No one should be compared to the New Orleans Pelicans’ disappointment this season. Their preseason win total was 46.5; right now, they're on pace to win 16 games. Zion Williamson’s expected return tonight will not do enough to right this ship.
However, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been undeniably disappointing this season, a Western Conference finalist now scraping to stay above .500. In response to their latest three-game losing streak, head coach Chris Finch changed the starting lineup last night.
Donte DiVincenzo replaced Mike Conley at point guard, both of them responding well to the switch. If that was the switch, why now fade Julius Randle? Because emphasizing DiVincenzo actually comes at Randle’s expense as the game goes on.
Minnesota is balancing effectiveness with politics. Randle has been ineffective of late, but as the primary piece received in a trade that sent out Karl-Anthony Towns, Randle has some standing in the lineup, not to mention the payroll.
DiVincenzo has increasingly found his groove and the Timberwolves like to lean on him in closing lineups. Last night, for example, DiVincenzo played the entire fourth quarter as part of his 31 minutes, while Randle logged only 23 minutes.
Randle is more and more a piece of the second unit, a starter in name only. Sportsbooks are not yet recognizing that, but this newest lineup shift should make it clear pretty quickly. Until then, there's value in fading Randle’s points prop simply from a minutes perspective, setting aside the fact he's fallen short of this prop in four of his last five games already, as well as in 10 of his last 17 games.
Timberwolves vs Pelicans same-game parlay
Julius Randle Under 18.5 points
Zion Williamson Under 16.5 points
Over 222.5
Zion Williamson has not played in two full months. A left hamstring strain was just the latest injury to sideline the supposed Pelicans star, and it feels safe to assume New Orleans will limit his minutes tonight. Combine limited action with a rusty shot against a defense that can reach the best levels in the NBA, and doubting Williamson is not a bold thought tonight.
Combining doubt in those two forwards with an Over bet tonight escalates the payout of this same-game parlay.
The Over stems from a Minnesota inclination. On the second night of a back-to-back, the Timberwolves may not have the legs to be at their absolute best on defense. Last night, they finished the game on a 15-for-30 stretch from beyond the arc after opening 1-for-9. Continuing that hot shooting would also obviously help this Over approach.
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Timberwolves vs Pelicans odds
Timberwolves vs Pelicans live odds
Timberwolves vs Pelicans opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota -4.5 | New Orleans +4.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota -200 | New Orleans +165
- Over/Under: Over 223.5 | Under 223.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Timberwolves vs Pelicans spread and Over/Under analysis
- Shortly after Minnesota beat the Clippers last night, this spread opened with the Wolves favored by 4.5 points. It quickly jumped to -5.5 before settling at -4.5 early on Tuesday afternoon.
- If expecting a bigger spread in this matchup, realize Minnesota got off the court at about 9:30 local time last night and then showered and flew to New Orleans, a three-hour flight. It's a known trial of the job, but it's one to factor in, regardless.
- This total opened at 223.5 late on Monday night and fell to 221.5 during the overnight, ticking back to 222.5 early on Tuesday afternoon.
Timberwolves vs Pelicans trend
Before last night, the Timberwolves cashed five Overs in a row. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs Pelicans.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Pelicans
| Location: | Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-7-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | GCSEN, FDSNNOX |
Timberwolves vs Pelicans latest injuries
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