The Detroit Pistons face steep NBA odds against them yet again Wednesday night, hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves as 11.5-point underdogs.
At 28-11, the Wolves sit atop the Western Conference and are looking at possibly sitting All-NBA candidate Anthony Edwards for a contest they should have no trouble winning either way.
Regardless, it's conversely the troubles of a certain Detroit player I'll be targeting with my free NBA picks for tonight's Timberwolves vs. Pistons matchup.
As Detroit continues meandering towards a historically awful season, let's check out how we're making a buck or two off its misfortunes on January 17.
Timberwolves vs Pistons odds
Timberwolves vs Pistons predictions
It's pretty safe to call Killian Hayes a bust at this point.
Hayes — who was, both infamously and embarrassingly, not offered the almost-standard rookie scale extension last summer — was force-fed a bunch of touches early in the year, perhaps in a double-edged attempt to either salvage some of his trade value or not-so-covertly begin the tanking process.
It was an interesting move by Monty Williams, given that Hayes had repeatedly demonstrated the shooting touch of a 100-pound anvil, with high-upside Pistons youngsters Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey begging for usage.
Hayes showed flashes of pseudo-potential, but mostly just remained the same inept offensive player he'd built his rep as. For the season, his true shooting percentage sits at a nauseating 46.1%, a notch above his career mark.
Somewhere along the Pistons' trek to contending for the worst season in NBA history, Williams decided, smartly to his credit, to gradually abandon ship on the whole Hayes reclamation project, cutting his shot attempts almost in half — from over nine in the season's first few weeks, to just 5.1 in January.
And the effects on Hayes' confidence have been tangible. His shooting splits this month (trigger warning, especially if you're a Pistons fan): 29/11/57. The guy's game is reaching new levels of broken, not that it was ever particularly together.
Killian Hayes odds to stay Under 5.5 points tonight are priced at +100, which I'm having a hard time ignoring, given that he's facing the Timberwolves (you know, the best defensive team in the NBA) and hasn't gone over this total in any of his past seven games, during which time he's averaging a timid 3.0 ppg.
This isn't the spot for him to suddenly find a rhythm when his touches are eroding faster than the polar ice caps. Hammer this Under at plus money and rest easy tonight while Hayes does shit like this against DPOY odds favorite Rudy Gobert:
KILLIAN HAYES OH MY 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/UByoNIYB7q
— BrickMuse (@BrickMuse) January 15, 2024
My best bet: Killian Hayes Under 5.5 points (+100 at PROLINE+)
Timberwolves vs Pistons same-game parlay
Timberwolves -12.5
Under 221.5
In the absence of being able to back Hayes' futility with the PROLINE+ SGP offerings, I'm sticking to the spread and total, leaning on a punchless Pistons offense to come up short against the league's most complete defense.
Not only will the Pistons struggle to create looks with Cunningham still out, but the T-Wolves are a Bottom-4 paced team that should be totally okay grinding this game to a halt on both sides of the ball, dialing in on shutting down Detroit's three or so competent NBA-level scorers, and keeping this below the total, while the game itself won't really be in question.
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Timberwolves vs Pistons spread and Over/Under analysis
The industry consensus on this spread has more or less been a static 11.5, where it opened at most major outlets (including Pinnacle), despite a couple of quickly-corrected rogue 12.5s.
Edwards' status appears to be trending towards playing, given the lack of movement and his props being widely available as of Wednesday morning. It should go without mentioning, but Detroit's one of the NBA's worst spread teams this season at just 16-23-1 ATS, while Minnesota's a tidy 20-17-2 — a Top 10 mark — but perhaps not as good as some might expect given that the Wolves have blown preseason projections of out water by leading the West.
The total sits at 222.5 across the industry, with Detroit, somewhat anomalously, playing 24-15-1 to the Over this season despite its misadventures on offense and a litany of blowout losses.
I'd tend to lean towards the Under, with Cunningham still out and the rest of Detroit's offense sorely lacking for competent playmaking or go-to scoring — with Alec Burks suddenly averaging 20 ppg this month to prop up the offense.
That's a recipe for futility against a Wolves team that's been the NBA's best on D by a wide margin (the gap between No. 1 Minny and No. 2 Boston is enough to engulf teams 2-9 in D-rating), and could see this game in garbage-time doldrums by the early second half.
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Timberwolves vs Pistons betting trend to know
The Pistons have only hit the 1H moneyline in 18 of their last 75 games (-21.9 units/-29% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Pistons.
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Timberwolves vs Pistons game info
| Location: | Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Wednesday, January 17, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally North, Bally Detroit |
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