Northwest Division rivals meet at Paycom Center on New Year’s Eve as the Thunder welcome the visiting Timberwolves with each team looking to extend its current win streak.
My Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions expect Rudy Gobert to have a strong night on the glass against a vulnerable Thunder interior defense. Read my NBA picks to see why you should take the Over on Gobert’s rebound line on Tuesday, December 31.
Timberwolves vs Thunder prediction
My best bet
Rudy Gobert Over 9.5 rebounds (-135 at bet365)
My analysis
Rudy Gobert’s 10.7 boards are tied for his fewest per game since the 2014-15 campaign, but this line is still set just a bit too low.
He’s grabbed at least 10 rebounds in 19 of 31 games played for the Minnesota Timberwolves this season. He’s corralled at least nine boards in 24 of 31 games overall and 14 of 16 away from Target Center. Gobert has averaged 11.5 rebounds per game against Northwest Division opponents.
Gobert averaged 14.3 rebounds per game in four matchups with the Oklahoma City Thunder last season, hitting the Over in all three of the games in which he logged at least 30 minutes. In 25 games played with at least 30 minutes this season, he’s hauled in 10 or more boards 18 times. He should be expected to see at least that many minutes tonight in what figures to be a close game.
Since joining the Timberwolves ahead of the 2022-23 campaign, Gobert has logged 128 games with 10 or more rebounds, good for third-most in the Association.
The Thunder have allowed the second-most rebounds to opponents this season, including the second-most at home. The team sports one of the smallest lineups in the Association, and with Chet Holmgren sidelined, center depth is nearly non-existent behind Isaiah Hartenstein.
OKC has been routinely cooked on the glass this season. Over their last five games, the Thunder have allowed John Konchar to grab 15 rebounds, Mark Williams and Miles Bridges to grab 10 apiece, Pascal Siakam to pull down 10, Myles Turner to get 11, Jonas Valanciunas to finish with 16, Bam Adebayo 10, and Tyler Herro 12.
The rebound totals were all season-bests for Konchar, Turner, Valanciunas, and Herro. In three of those five games, two players recorded 10 or more boards. This is a phenomenal matchup for Minnesota’s leading rebounder, so I’m hammering the Over on this modest line.
Timberwolves vs Thunder same-game parlay
Rudy Gobert Over 9.5 rebounds
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 27.5 points + rebounds + assists
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 29.5 points
I’ll continue to bet Isaiah Hartenstein combo props until they rise to his superb level of play.
The big man has played incredibly since arriving in Oklahoma City, averaging career highs across the board with 12.6 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 3.8 assists across 30 minutes per game. He’s hit the Over on this line in 11 of 16 games overall, including three of six at home.
On the season, the Wolves have allowed opposing centers to score the 11th-most points (23.1) and fifth-fewest rebounds (13.8). Over the last seven, however, Minnesota has allowed the most points to opposing centers (29.6) and the sixth-most rebounds (17.1).
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the king of 30-point games. He’s averaging 31 this season, and he averaged better than 30 points in each of his last two dating back to 2022-23. In that span, Gilgeous-Alexander has tallied 113 30-point games, which is the most in the Association.
The Over/Under line on his points is set at 31.5 tonight for -105 odds, but I’m happy to take that down to -150 for 29.5 points and add this to our three-leg parlay for additional insurance. Dating back to the 2020-21 season, SGA has averaged 30.3 points in six home games with the Wolves, hitting the Over five times. He’s hit the Over in seven of his last eight, and I’m confident he’ll get there again tonight.
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Timberwolves vs Thunder odds
Timberwolves vs Thunder live odds
Timberwolves vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +7.5 (-105) | Oklahoma City -7.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Minnesota +235 | Oklahoma City -290
- Over/Under: Over 216.5 (-110) | Under 216.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Timberwolves vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota has won three straight and covered in two of those, bringing the team’s record to 17-14 straight up and 13-18 ATS.
- Oklahoma City is riding a six-game win streak with a 4-1-1 ATS record in that span, and the Thunder are 26-6 straight up and 20-9-3 ATS on the season.
- The Timberwolves have hit the Over in two of their last three and in 15 of 31 games in 2024-25.
- The Thunder have gone 3-6-1 to the Under across their last 10 and 13-18-1 to the Under this season.
Timberwolves vs Thunder trend
These teams split the 2022-23 season series two games apiece, and the Thunder went 2-1-1 ATS. Three of the four games were decided by six points or fewer, and three of four hit the Under. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Thunder.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Thunder
| Location: | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-31-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV |
Timberwolves vs Thunder latest injuries
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