Injuries have likely cost the Golden State Warriors the last season of their dynasty, but they are still on the fringe of reaching the playoffs. Tonight’s matchup with the Minnesota Timberwolves, another season hampered by injury, could be a play-in preview, though hopefully, any such play-in game would include a few more superstars than tonight will.
Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Timberwolves vs. the Warriors on February 26.
Timberwolves vs Warriors best odds
Timberwolves vs Warriors picks and predictions
The original expectation here was to buy some Andrew Wiggins stock. He averages more than 20 points per game against the Timberwolves, enjoying his opportunities at revenge. But some personal reasons will keep Wiggins away from the Chase Center tonight.
Even without Wiggins and Steph Curry, not to mention Draymond Green being questionable, fading Golden State against Minnesota is a touch too bold for this handicapper. The Timberwolves continue to defy trust, hardly competing against the Charlotte Hornets on Friday in their return from the All-Star Break.
While that fits in with a Minnesota theme since the New Year — losing five games to the Pistons, Rockets, Magic, and Hornets since — it costs all faith when a slight underdog like tonight.
Perhaps Wiggins’ absence is why Anthony Edwards’ points prop is so high, up at 30.5. He's scored 31 or more in 13 of 62 games this season, so it is clearly plausible, but it still feels lofty. Similarly, if Green is limited tonight, Rudy Gobert’s stat line could start to look enticing.
Who else do the Warriors have to check the Frenchman? Kevon Looney averages 23.6 minutes and 10.1 rebounds per game since Jan. 14. And that is about it for significant size from Golden State, a clear worry heading to the postseason.
Betting on Gobert to record a double-double comes with significant juice, in the range of -180. Rather, pick a path, be it points (14.5) or rebounds (11.5), for a better value return. He has scored 15 or more points in 27 games this season while grabbing at least 12 rebounds in… exactly 27 games this season.
Against this particular team, one that hasn’t had a massive amount of roster churn among its core pieces (for obvious reason) in years, Gobert has grabbed 14 or more rebounds in 12 of his last 13 games against Golden State — the exception coming in late November when the Timberwolves were still very much finding their way.
He has grabbed double-digit boards in 14 straight against the Warriors, covering the entire last five seasons.
My best bet: Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 rebounds (-120)
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Timberwolves vs Warriors spread analysis
This line has fallen by a point since opening early Sunday morning, with Golden State favored by 3.5 points. Now at -2.5, some of that may tie to skepticism around Green’s availability with a knee contusion. Much of it probably ties to the market not overreacting to the Timberwolves’ Friday faceplant, even if this handicapper is hesitant to exercise that rational approach.
Perhaps the only thing Minnesota is more prone to than blowing a great chance at a win against a team chasing lottery odds is showing up unexpectedly against the best in the West.
Since Jan. 1 — the same timeline in which the Timberwolves have lost five games they very much should have won given the opponents — they have also beaten the Nuggets, Pelicans, Grizzlies, Kings, Warriors, and Mavericks all as clear underdogs.
Minnesota will be a live underdog tonight, an outright money line available as high as +120 throughout much of the market.
Timberwolves vs Warriors Over/Under analysis
This total has remained constant today, opening at 233.0 early Sunday and dabbling at 234.0 before settling at 233.5. Before getting distracted by the All-Star Break, Minnesota had gone 5-0-1 to the Over in its last six games, while Golden State went 6-1 to the Over in its seven games leading into the break.
The greater comedy here is that meetings between the Timberwolves and Warriors have hit the Over in eight of their last nine games. That is a long enough stretch, it is rather inexplicable.
Timberwolves vs Warriors betting trend to know
Rudy Gobert has recorded double-digit boards in 14 straight games against the Dubs. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Warriors.
Timberwolves vs Warriors game info
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, February 26, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
