Jimmy Butler’s second game with the Golden State Warriors comes against the short-handed Milwaukee Bucks. Looking at Milwaukee, it is hard to see it stopping any perimeter threats for a while, and certainly not secondary threats. Losing Giannis Antetokounmpo for a few weeks will do that to an already suspect defense.
Thus, my Warriors vs. Bucks prediction is betting on Golden State’s newfound secondary perimeter threat.
Read on for my NBA picks as the tip comes at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, February 10.
Warriors vs Bucks prediction
My best bet
Jimmy Butler Over 20.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Jimmy Butler had played just five games since Dec. 21. Yes, that was his own fault, and his general disdain for playing regularly is part of why his trade value was diminished. But the simple fact is he had not played much of late.
And then he logged nearly 29 minutes in his Golden State Warriors debut, scoring 25 points on just 7 of 12 shooting, going 11 of 13 from the free-throw line. He will not always get to the line that often, but a renewed verve and need to prove himself should lead to an uptick from the 2.8 free throws Butler averaged in his last five games with the Miami Heat.
Beyond that, though, Butler should have plenty of space to operate against a porous Milwaukee Bucks’ defense. Milwaukee ranks No. 22 in defensive rating in the last month, underscoring what has been its problem ever since it traded Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard. Abandoning a defensive identity — one that had won a championship — for the variance of offensive playmaking is not a sound strategy, and the Bucks’ continued struggles in the last year and a half prove that.
Now with Giannis Antetokounmpo out for at least this week with a calf injury — likely longer — Milwaukee’s defense will struggle even further. Look at the perimeter options.
Lillard will presumably be chasing Steph Curry. Some combination of Andre Jackson, Gary Trent Jr., and AJ Green will fill out the backcourt minutes. Taurean Prince and Kyle Kuzma started at forward for Milwaukee on Sunday. This is hardly a stifling defense.
Butler has the ball in his hands plenty, far more than shooting guard Buddy Hield. That is in part because it is Butler’s natural tendency, and it is in part because Golden State needs to quickly incorporate his addition into its offense as the Warriors chase a Play-In spot.
The Bucks will understandably focus on Curry. After that, they do not have enough defense to bother a second perimeter threat, which will be to Butler’s benefit.
Warriors vs Bucks same-game parlay
Jimmy Butler Over 20.5 points
Warriors -7
Warriors team total Over 118.5
Quite clearly, this is built entirely around my doubt in Milwaukee’s defense. It gave up 127 points to the scuffling 76ers on Sunday. Yes, as in yesterday.
The Bucks being on the second half of a back-to-back furthers the belief in the Warriors covering this spread. Lillard played 44 minutes vs. Philly. Asking him to now chase Curry will not end well for anyone in a Milwaukee jersey.
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Warriors vs Bucks odds
Warriors vs Bucks live odds
Warriors vs Bucks opening odds
- Spread: Golden State -6.5 | Milwaukee +6.5
- Moneyline: Golden State -270 | Milwaukee +220
- Over/Under: Over 233.5 | Under 233.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Warriors vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Warriors opened as 6.5-point favorites on Sunday evening, falling to -6 during the Super Bowl and toggling between -6.5 and -6 into Monday morning.
- But then, Golden State rose to -7 early Monday afternoon.
- The total opened at 233.5 and fell to 231.5 by sunrise and then to 230 in the lunch hour, steadying at 230.5.
Warriors vs Bucks trend
Milwaukee is just 1-6 against the spread in its last seven games. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Bucks.
How to watch Warriors vs Bucks
| Location | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Monday, 2-10-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC Sports Bay Area, FanDuel Sports Network - Wisconsin |
Warriors vs Bucks latest injuries
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