Warriors vs Celtics Picks and Predictions: Time Lord Reigns Over Champs

Sometimes, there’s a game that fans and teams alike have circled on the calendar. Even though it's still the regular season, some matchups take on that outsized importance. Thursday, January 19 sees one such game, as the latest tilt between NBA Finals foes the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics serves as crucible for the latter.

The Celtics have been the NBA’s best team this season while the Warriors have struggled to maintain a .500 record. But, if these two were to meet in the Finals again this summer, the outcome of this game could loom large. Boston needs to prove it can beat the Warriors, the Warriors will be desperate for a quality road win. The stage is set for a barn burner.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Celtics believe that Robert Williams III will be the deciding factor in a convincing Boston victory.

Warriors vs Celtics best odds

Warriors vs Celtics picks and predictions

This is a big game for the Celtics. The Warriors have a clear psychological edge over the Celtics at this point in time, having vanquished them in the NBA Finals as well as in their first matchup this season. Boston remains at the top of the overall standings, but another loss to the Warriors could have lasting consequences for a team that should rightly be considered the favorite to win it all.

Jaylen Brown is questionable for Thursday’s game, and crucially he was the Celtics' best offensive player in the Finals against Golden State. That’s because the Warriors geared their entire defense toward disrupting Jayson Tatum, which no doubt they’ll continue to do. But even with Brown absent, the addition of Malcolm Brogdon and strong play by Derrick White gives the Celtics release valves on offense when Tatum gets swarmed.

But the major difference from the game these two teams played on December 10 (and really, the Finals as well), is the presence of one Robert Williams III. The Time Lord is not the Celtics' best player, nor even their second best, but against the Warriors in particular, he is their most essential weapon. 

The offensive explosion we’re currently seeing in the NBA has a pretty clear and obvious explanation. Players and teams are shooting 2-point field goals at a better clip than ever before. This is the secret to the Warriors' offense, while not a high-volume rim attacking team, the Splash Brothers’ gravity pulls opposing defense apart at the seams, making all their trips to the paint into extremely high-quality shots. More 3s equals more space equals more layups, and it’s a formula the Warriors have refined to perfection.

But Williams is a variable that Golden State has not and perhaps cannot solve for. His role as off-ball rim protector stymies so many of those trips to the basket that allow the Warriors to truly get the blender going. To illustrate just how difficult Williams makes life for Golden State, he was a +30 in the NBA Finals, a series the Celtics lost by a total of 24 points. I maintain that had he been healthy, the Celtics probably win that series in six.

While the Celtics have played to their potential this season, the Warriors have yet to look like themselves for more than a game or two at a time. Even with Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins back in the lineup recently, they’ve floundered against teams they should theoretically beat handily, like the Chicago Bulls or the shambling remnants of the Phoenix Suns. Their road woes are well documented.

I believe Williams will prove key in ensuring a Celtics cover.

My best bet: Celtics -6.5 (-110 at bet365)

Warriors vs Celtics spread analysis

Flatly, this spread is not reflective of recent team quality, which is probably why this line has risen from -4.5 to -6.5 Celtics.  The Warriors, even with their true starting five back on the court, continue to struggle against the spread, and against even moderate adversity. 

Their overall ATS record on the road this season is a miserable 5-16-0, and in their last five games, they’ve posted a -7.7 spread differential per Cleaning the Glass, the fourth-worst margin in the NBA in that span. Their road foibles have been a season-long issue, leading to a 6-16 record ATS in their last 22 road games. 

By contrast, Boston is beating the spread by an average of 5.5 points in the past two weeks, posting an eye-popping +14.6 net rating over that same stretch. The Celts are also 4-0 ATS in their last four. It’s strange to see, but the Warriors have been basically an average team all season long on both sides of the ball. Boston has been elite and has had two days off to prepare.

Warriors vs Celtics Over/Under analysis

The total for Thursday’s contest has come in at a lofty 237.5, seemingly justified by both teams' recent trends on offense. The Over has cashed in four straight Warriors games and is also a robust 24-7 in the Warriors’ last 31 road games against teams with a winning home record. The Celtics have also played a lot of high-scoring games at the TD Garden of late. The Over is 13-6 in their last 19 games at home.

But I’m still not confident this will be the shootout it’s being billed as. The Warriors have really shied away from attacking the rim this season. They’re already dead last in the percentage of their offense generated at the basket per Cleaning the Glass, and that will prove problematic against Time Lord. Williams has an argument for the most impactful rim protector outside of Jaren Jackson Jr. and his play struck legitimate fear into the hearts of driving Warriors in the NBA Finals. If he short-circuits their offensive flow as I expect, Golden State will see a lot of their jump shots contested.

That and, much like the Miami Heat, the Celtics play a physical style of defense that involves a lot of activity and energy. Having two days off should allow them to reach the heights of what their defensive scheme is capable of. That’s previously seen the Under go 18-7 in the Celtics’ last 25 games playing on two days' rest.

Warriors vs Celtics betting trend to know

Warriors are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Celtics.

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