Warriors vs Grizzlies Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Curry Plays Role of Facilitator

Draymond Green will make his return to the Golden State Warriors lineup as they travel to Tennessee to take on the Memphis Grizzlies, and we have you covered with our best bet from this matchup from the latest NBA odds. 

While the Warriors get a little healthier with Green's return, the Grizzlies haven't been so fortunate. Not only is Ja Morant out for the remainder of the season, but then we found out that Marcus Smart would be out for at least six weeks, and the Grizzlies announced on Sunday that Desmond Bane will also miss six weeks with an ankle sprain. To top it all off, Jaren Jackson Jr. is also on the injury report after missing Saturday's game with a knee contusion. 

With the Grizzlies roster up against it and the Warriors looking to fight their way back into the playoff picture, let's take a closer look at my free NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Grizzlies on Monday, January 15th.

Warriors vs Grizzlies odds

Warriors vs Grizzlies predictions

The Golden State Warriors will be taking on a depleted Memphis Grizzlies roster, and this is the perfect spot for Stephen Curry to get all of his teammates involved. It seems cliche to say that, but Curry is the type of point guard who would value using this game to get his teammates shots and their confidence up. He knows he needs them for the long run if the Warriors are going to be successful.

While this is how I think Curry will approach this game, we also have the numbers to back us up with placing a bet. In the three games played without Chris Paul, Curry is averaging 11 potential assists per game, which is 2.5 assists higher than his season average of 8.5. 

This increase was less relevant when they were trading his total at 6.5, but with Draymond Green returning to the lineup, the sportsbooks decided to adjust Curry's total back down to 4.5, which is where he was trading when Green and Paul were both in the lineup for the Warriors.

This just in: Green has returned but Paul has not, so I think the adjustment down to 4.5 is too much. Paul eats more into Curry's assists total than Green does because it moves Curry off of the ball a lot more while CP3 runs the offense. We also don't know how many minutes Green will see or if he is even starting.

Even with Green returning to the lineup, Curry's total should be juiced heavily on the Over 4.5 assists or trading at 5.5 with plus money on the Over. Thankfully, this is not where Caesars opened it (-129), and it has created a probability gap for us to attack. Curry is projected to have 5.4 assists on Monday, which allows us to price the Over 4.5 assists at -165.

My best bet: Stephen Curry Over 4.5 assists (-129 at Caesars)

Warriors vs Grizzlies same-game parlay

Stephen Curry Over 4.5 assists

Klay Thompson Over 3.5 made threes

Stephen Curry Under 265.5 points

+400 at Caesars

If Curry is going to go over his assists total, we are going to need a little help from his fellow Splash Brother to get us there. A teammate knocking down more three-pointers than anticipated is an easy way for someone to get over their assists total. Thompson has also attempted 32 three-pointers in his last two games, and these bets become very correlated if Curry is the one passing him the ball on those shots.

In our best bet, I talked about how I felt Curry would try to use this game as a way to create offense for his teammates and increase their confidence on the offensive end. That being said, I think Curry will be more of a creator than a scorer, so I'm going to pair the Under on his points prop with the Over on his assists total.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Warriors vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis

The Warriors opened as an 8-point favorite at FanDuel, and we have seen that number bounce back and forth between Warriors -8 and Warriors -7.5 since. Make sure to shop around for the best number before placing your bet, as the market is always showing a handful of Warriors -8 and Warriors -7.5 available.

The total opened at 226.5, and we have seen it move by half a point to the Over at DraftKings. With Green returning to the lineup and the Grizzlies missing a ton of players, we could see this total fluctuate throughout the day depending on any significant changes to either team's starting lineup.

Warriors vs Grizzlies betting trend to know

The Golden State Warriors have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games (+11.10 Units / 34% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Grizzlies.

Warriors vs Grizzlies game info

Warriors vs Grizzlies latest injuries

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