Warriors vs Kings Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Sabonis Strikes Back

Kudos to the NBA schedule makers, who have drafted a pretty nice opening three nights of action.

Night four features another must-see matchup with the Golden State Warriors (0-1) visiting the Sacramento Kings (1-0). It’s a rematch of the most entertaining Round 1 playoff series last year, when Steph Curry scored 50 points in Game 7 to send the third-ranked Kings packing after a breakthrough regular season.

The NBA odds have the Kings as 3-point home favorites to Light the Beam, which, by the way, is easily one of the coolest catchphrases and laser shows going! However, when it comes to offering our NBA picks for Warriors vs. Kings on Friday, October 27, we’re targeting a matchup – or lack thereof – in the frontcourt.

If you're looking for more great NBA bets, you can also check out our Stephen Curry player prop picks!

Warriors vs Kings odds

Warriors vs Kings predictions

There were no soft landings away from Chase Center for the Dubs last year, who posted a brutal 11-30 road record, the fourth-worst road mark in the league, and the worst of any playoff team. That’s a troubling stat after their 108-104 home loss to the Phoenix Suns to start the year. 

It will also be the second-straight game they’ll be without Draymond Green, who will sit out with a bum ankle. Without their connective glue guy and best defensive player, it adds another layer of difficulty to a team trying to reload on the fly.

Golden State shipped out Jordan Poole and brought in veteran Chris Paul, while Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody are no longer young works-in-progress and are now expected to be rotation contributors.

The early result was a disjointed effort that most affected the Splash Brothers. Steph Curry was just 8-for-20 from the floor and a forgettable 4-for-14 from distance to lead the team with 27 points. Klay Thompson was 6-for-18, and just 3-for-11 from downtown, potting just 15 points, to go with seven boards and three assists.

It was a far different season opener for the Kings, who crushed the Utah Jazz 130-114, a game where all 15 Sacramento players got into the game. The Kings poured it on from downtown, going 19-for-51 from distance, a sturdy 37.3% clip. 

Harrison Barnes led the way with 33 points – bettering his single-game scoring output from any game a season ago. De’Aaron Fox had 18 points, five boards and six dimes in a tidy 33 minutes, while Domantas Sabonis had 22 points, 12 rebounds and five assists.

It was a nightmarish playoff series for the Kings’ big man a year ago, as he averaged 16.4 points on 49.5% shooting, far below his 19.1 points and career-best 61.5% shooting in the regular season. However, it should be a considerably different story tonight. With Green not able to get into his head (or stomp his chest), Sabonis should be able to play loose and free as the Kings’ offensive hub. Expect him to easily surpass 18.5 points playing in front of his home crowd.

My best bet: Domantas Sabonis Over 18.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Warriors vs Kings same-game parlay

Sabonis Over 18.5 points

Fox Over 23.5 points

Paul Under 26.5 points + Rebounds + assists

+575 at bet365

Let’s run up the juice and build off the Sabonis prop.

As much as he’ll be able to do work inside and at the elbows, Sabonis is not the closer, and he will need All-Star De’Aaron Fox to land the plane if it’s tight down the stretch. 

The Warriors had no answer for Fox in the playoffs as he scored at least 24 points in six of seven games. Unfortunately, his only down performance was in Game 7, when he had just 16 points on 5-for-19 shooting, a lowly 26.3% clip. In his first chance to get back at the Dubs, look for Fox to be more assertive than in the blowout opener against Utah.

Golden State’s best hope of defending the lightning-quick Fox is Gary Payton II, and it’s likely going to come at the expense of Chris Paul’s playing time.

CP3 was decent in this Dubs debut, scoring 14 points, grabbing six boards and doling out a team-best nine assists. But he shot 4-for-15 from the field and missed all six of this three-point attempts. Neither Paul nor Curry are equipped to handle Fox on the defensive end, and there’s really only room to hide one of those two on Kevin Huerter.

Paul will still start (and might still when Green returns) but his production should wane from that stat-pleasing effort against the Suns.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Warriors vs Kings and Over/Under analysis

The day after the Warriors’ loss of the 2023-24 season, you could still find them as low as 1-point ‘dogs to Sacramento. Since then, though, the line has jumped to as high as 3.5 points, with most settling into that 2.5-3.0 range.

Despite a breakthrough year where Sacramento went 48-34, earned the No. 3 seed in the West and boasted a Top 5 offensive rating, they were ground down by the more experienced Warriors in the playoffs. Green played a huge part of the Warriors enjoying a 3-1 regular-season series win a year ago. His absence is as impactful as any other top player on another team.

As for the total, the books are expecting plenty of points, despite the fact both teams were in the top half of defensive rating last season. The line has stayed pretty steady at 239.5, but you can find a few books going a point higher to 240.5.

During their seven-game series, the Warriors and Kings topped 240 points twice, and just once in four regular-season meetings.

Warriors vs Kings betting trend to know

Last year, the Warriors were a dismal 3-21-0 against the spread as road underdogs. Only the Memphis Grizzlies, who went 0-17-0 ATS, were worse. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Kings.

Warriors vs Kings game info

Warriors vs Kings latest injuries

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