Warriors vs Lakers Game 6 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Wire-to-Wire for Warriors?

Count out the Golden State Warriors at your own risk. This dynasty will die only when an opponent burns the Warriors’ head and then buries the ashes. Maybe the Los Angeles Lakers get the job done tonight and eliminate Golden State, but how comfortable are you betting against Steph Curry & Co. in such a moment?

Here are our NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Lakers Game 6 on Friday, May 12.

Warriors vs Lakers Game 6 best odds

Warriors vs Lakers Game 6 picks and predictions

Figuring out the Lakers this season has been hard enough. Doing so tonight may be near impossible.

Let’s be clear: Every rational person should hope Anthony Davis did not suffer a concussion on Wednesday night. Every reasonable human should hope he is capable of playing at 100% tonight. Every genuine basketball fan should always want that from an opponent, and particularly when it comes to head injuries.

But anyone who saw the elbow to Davis’s temple on Wednesday is going to be skeptical of his play out of the gates tonight. And if Davis is slowed at all, suddenly, Los Angeles’s entire defensive scheme is fractured.

Add to that how hard it has been to figure out LeBron James’ early intentions. As one Lakers fan put it in the texts this week: “This man has perfected load management in games.” James has effectively taken off multiple first quarters in this series; the right long-term approach so he has juice in the final minutes, but one that is especially risky against the Warriors because of just how quickly Steph Curry can blow open a game.

And Curry needs to tonight.

Golden State is down 3-2 and on the road. This is not a moment to mess around and test LeBron in the fourth quarter, no matter how effective or ineffective Davis ends up being. This is a time to find a vintage Warriors’ performance, one where the dazzling extra pass does not repeatedly end up in a turnover, one where Jordan Poole understands his heat check is not needed, one where Steph, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green slice through an opposing crowd’s nerves quickly and early.

In 12 playoff games this year, Golden State is 6-6 straight-up in the first half, just as it is 6-6 straight-up in the game. In the Warriors’ four wins, though, they are 4-2 straight-up in the first half. The correlation may seem obvious, but there is still value to be found in it.

Betting on Steph to get out quickly and then hold off any charge from LeBron juices a money line play to +220 (at FanDuel) from a board-best +125 (at BetMGM). Given LeBron’s constant load management — and that is not meant as a critique; his foot is clearly bothering him every night — and Davis’s overall uncertainty, an early Warriors lead could turn the game into cruise control setting up high drama for Sunday’s Game 7. Steph, Klay, and Dray know that. They’ll go for the kill early.

My best bet: Warriors double result first half/full time (+220 at FanDuel)

Warriors vs Lakers Game 6 same-game parlay

Warriors double result first half/full time +220

Klay Thompson Over 21.5 points -118

LeBron James Over 8.5 rebounds -136

+928 at FanDuel

The Covers.com editorial desk has some word count and analysis expectations, which is the only reason the first added part of this same-game parlay is not simply one sentence: It’s Game 6 and he’s Klay Thompson.

The NBA’s most relatable star has struggled in the last three games, but he opened the series with 55 points in the first two games, going 14-of-27 from beyond the arc. He’s scored more than 21 points in five of 12 playoff games this year, with the first two games of this postseason both coming in at exactly 21 points.

We all know he can go off, but it bears remembering how often he has done it in these crucial moments in the past. Yes, these moments all came before his multiple knee injuries, but Klay’s mentality in do-or-die moments should be unchanged.

Before this postseason, Thompson averaged 26.6 points in his last eight elimination games, dating back to the 2016 Western Conference Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder. He scored fewer than 19 points in only one of those eight games, notching 22 or more in five of the eight.

Thompson has a proven track record of showing up in these moments, and he had cleared this points prop in five of the last six games before the Lakers found a Davis-centric defense that worked in this series. If that defense is off at all tonight, Thompson will be primed to capitalize.

Part of Los Angeles’s absolute dependence on Davis defensively has stemmed from James’s foot. He is simply not as explosive as usual, even his age-38 usual. As a result, James has played closer to the hoop, both on offense and defense, and he has thus averaged 10.1 rebounds per game in 11 playoff games this year.

Sure, that was inflated by grabbing 20 rebounds in Game 4 against Memphis, but remove both that and the Game 6 outlier of just five because the Lakers so blew out the Grizzlies, and LeBron averages 9.6 rebounds per game with only two games below nine.

If Los Angeles advances, this rebounding prop may adjust up to 9.5 in each game, but for now, it holds value.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Warriors vs Lakers Game 6 spread and Over/Under analysis

Despite the concern over Davis’s head, this spread has not moved much. It opened with the Lakers favored by either 3.0 or 2.5, depending on your book, early Thursday morning, and that spread never strayed from -2.0 to -3.0 as Davis updates came out, then followed by reports of a rib injury to Warriors forward Andrew Wiggins.

Some of that bookmaker certainty assuredly comes from Golden State’s struggles on the road this year, and while this handicap may argue in favor of an upset tonight, it would be incomplete without rattling off these grotesque stats.

Including the playoffs, the Warriors are 14-33 against the spread on the road this season, including 2-4 in these playoffs and 0-2 in this series. They were 11-30 straight-up on the road in the regular season, again 2-4 in these playoffs and 0-2 in this series.

The total for tonight opened at 223.5 before falling steadily to 220.0 by late morning on Friday. Totals have consistently fallen in this series, dropping to 223.5 in Game 5. An elimination game should only exacerbate the chaos that has largely stifled these offenses thus far.

Warriors vs Lakers betting trend to know

The Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams in Los Angeles. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Lakers.

Warriors vs Lakers Game 6 game info

Warriors vs Lakers Game 6 key injuries

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