Wizards vs Timberwolves Picks and Predictions: Washington Works Early Magic in Minnesota

Instinct may be to dismiss the Washington Wizards tonight, but they are contending for an Eastern Conference play-in spot. Their net differential suggests they should actually be considered a more viable threat than some more respected teams, namely the Miami Heat and the Atlanta Hawks.

The Minnesota Timberwolves would be wise to pay the Wizards that respect tonight, as they have a chance to enter the All-Star Break with all the positive momentum of a Top-6 seed, but they need to win tonight for that delight.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Wizards vs Timberwolves on Thursday, February 16.

Wizards vs Timberwolves best odds

Wizards vs Timberwolves picks and predictions

Handicaps are based in trends, data, analytics and whatever other synonyms you want to use for things that are tangible arguments. Handicaps are not often based on narrative or vibes. But sometimes these Timberwolves demand it, and tonight creates a letdown spot that Minnesota has leaned into all season long.

The T-wolves rattled off four straight wins from Jan. 2 to Jan. 8, then dropped a game to the Pistons for the second time in less than two weeks. They then moved from the 12th seed to the seventh seed in the span of two weeks, then lost to the Rockets on Jan. 23. Minnesota beat Golden State in overtime on Feb. 1, then lost to Orlando two nights later. 

The Timberwolves struggle to demand the respect they flirt with earning. Since Jan. 13, they have gone 8-5 against the Top-11 teams in the West, teams doggedly fighting for those playoff spots. Yet Minnesota is only two games above .500 because it loses games to the Rockets and Magic when it absolutely should not.

Tonight has that feel. The Wizards are 12-13 against the Western Conference — hardly a faulty mark — but they do not necessarily get respect. A franchise torn between a long-time star in Bradley Beal and a need to rebuild leads to broad dismissals of any success. It shouldn’t, but it does.

And Minnesota will dismiss the Wizards. Never mind that their net differential this season is the same as the Timberwolves', and 3.62 ppg better in the last month. Never mind that Washington has beaten Minnesota in six straight games. Never mind that the Wizards have a Top-10 offensive rating and a Top-5 effective field goal percentage since mid-December.

These Timberwolves have proven time and time again that they lack the discipline to come out each and every night with the professionalism required in the NBA. They need to look at an opponent and see reason to come out aggressively, and in the best basketball league in the world, that often leads to failure.

So bet the Wizards moneyline of +125, right? Not quite. Enter Mike Conley.

Minnesota traded for the veteran point guard in part to instill some of that needed professionalism. He should do so, particularly with Kyle Anderson and Rudy Gobert both likely to play, though nothing can be assured until starting lineups are announced.

Conley may right the ship for the Timberwolves tonight if things start as sluggishly as expected, but the greatest likelihood is that he needs time to do that. He will not have Minnesota dialed in from the outset because he does not yet know how frustrating this habit is. After a quarter or a half, he should snap Anthony Edwards into focus. But in the interim, the Wizards should put the T-wolves in a hole.

In addition to Conley’s guidance, this is Washington’s third game in four days. Fatigue may show up in the second half. By comparison, it is Minnesota’s first game in three days.

My best bet: Wizards 1Q moneyline (+104 atFanDuel)

Wizards vs Timberwolves spread analysis

This line opened with Minnesota favored by three or 3.5, depending on your book, before coalescing at the former on Thursday morning. The Timberwolves have been alternating ATS wins with ATS losses for a couple of weeks now, so little can be gleaned from them, but Kyle Anderson’s trend line is most informative.

Since Jan. 11, Minnesota is 9-3 ATS when Anderson plays at least 18 minutes, but 2-5 when he doesn’t. And the two ATS wins came against short-handed opponents. Back spasms have been knocking him out of lineups, even when he tries to give it a go, costing the Timberwolves repeatedly.

In a five-game stretch up to Monday, Minnesota was 0-3 both SU and ATS against full-strength squads, all without Anderson, or with him for only a brief appearance. Then he played 24 minutes at Dallas on Monday, and he literally pickpocketed Luka Doncic in the closing minutes to help seal a dramatic win.

Anderson may not be in the starting lineup tonight, as a way to manage his minutes. But if he is cleared to play, there may be some found value in the Timberwolves.

Wizards vs Timberwolves Over/Under analysis

A total of 235 has remained largely steady overnight, with a brief Thursday morning showing of 233.5. Minnesota is finding some offensive rhythm, though, going Over in five of its last six games, with the exception of a push.

Tying back to Anderson's availability tonight, another trend emerges. The Timberwolves have gone Over in just 4 of 12 games with Anderson since Jan. 11. When he's either out or plays fewer than 18 minutes, the Over has gone 6-0-1.

The joke here would be that his “Slo Mo” nickname proves true, but it's Anderson’s perimeter defense that turns Minnesota into a worthwhile defensive team. Even when acknowledging two of those Overs without him came in blowouts against short-handed squads, and a third was another blowout against a caught-off-guard Timberwolves’ showing, the 4-8 mark to the Under with Anderson still stands out.

Wizards vs Timberwolves betting trend to know

The Over is 5-0 in Washington’s last five games against teams with a winning SU record. Find more NBA betting trends for Wizards vs. Timberwolves.

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