Two of the premier programs in college football are taking to the hardwood in the Emerald Coast Classic on Friday night with No. 17 Alabama taking on Ohio State in what is sure to be a high-scoring game.
The college basketball odds have the Crimson Tide as a heavy eight-point favorite in a neutral site at Raider Arena in Destin, Florida. The Buckeyes have played three cupcake games, and in their lone matchup with a Top-25 program, their defense was given all it could handle… so what’s going to happen when they deal with the most explosive attack in the country?
Find out where my best bets lie in our college basketball picks and predictions for Alabama vs. Ohio State on November 24.
Alabama vs Ohio State best odds
Alabama vs Ohio State picks and predictions
Coming off a season where the Alabama Crimson Tide went 31-6 and had the seventh-highest scoring offense in the country, Nate Oats’ program hasn’t missed a beat.
Through four games this season, the Tide are the highest-scoring team in college basketball at an astronomical 101.8 points per game. With that type of offense, the Over 152.5 is certainly in play.
Led by guard Mark Sears, Alabama has scored at least 98 points in every game this season. Sears, in his second season with the team since transferring from Ohio, is scoring 19.5 ppg and shooting a red-hot 66.7% from behind the arc. He’s been a point of focus this year for Oats.
“Mark, when he drives, he's finishing at the rim, getting fouled, or making the correct spray out (pass) about 95 percent of the time,” Oats said. “He's grown a lot in his decision making and he's always been pretty tough and physical going downhill.”
But it hasn’t just been the former All-MAC star, as Oats’ offense has four players scoring in the double digits and five players shooting at least 50% from three on at least two attempts per game.
The primary 3-point threat on the team is Aaron Estrada, a two-time transfer who moved from St. Peter’s to Hofstra and then to Alabama. Last season, he averaged 20.2 points per game for the Pride, securing his second Colonial Athletic Association Player of the Year award.
Jumping up to the SEC hasn’t hurt the three-point sniping guard either, as he’s transitioned smoothly and is already averaging 15.3 ppg and hitting 56.3% of his threes.
Between the damage Sears and Estrada can do, the fact that Alabama also has 6-foot-11 Jarin Stevenson stretching the floor with a jaw-dropping 50% 3-point rate just seems unfair. Throw in big man Grant Nelson, and the Ohio State Buckeyes defense is going to have all sorts of trouble tonight.
While Chris Holtmann’s squad is only giving up 63.5 points per game, they’ve played few quality opponents and are coming off a season in which they were giving up 69 per game.
The Buckeyes' points allowed can also be somewhat misleading, as they successfully limited Merrimack and Western Michigan to below 57 points each but conceded 73 points apiece to Oakland and Texas A&M. They also haven’t faced a team with anywhere near the length nor three-point shooting ability of this Alabama team.
In Ohio State's opener against the Golden Grizzlies, Oakland managed to make it a game by shooting as many threes as they could and connecting on 40% of them. Led by Blake Lampman and Jack Gohlke, they ended up going 14 for 35 from behind the arc.
Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are averaging 73.5 points per game on offense, led by the backcourt duo of Bruce Thornton and Roddy Gayle.
Thornton, a sophomore, has taken his game up a level this year by averaging 15.3 ppg and hitting 38% of his threes on 5.3 attempts per game. Gayle, a fellow sophomore, is right there with him at 14.8 ppg.
While Alabama is hanging points on everyone, its run-and-gun approach does leave them susceptible to giving up points. The Crimson Tide have allowed 66.5 ppg this season and have yet to play a non-mid-major program...until tonight.
My best bet: Over 152.5 (-110 at bet365)
Alabama vs Ohio State same-game parlay
Over 152.5
Alabama -8.5
In a game set up to be high-scoring, let’s trust the better offense. While Alabama hasn’t played a team with the Buckeyes' talent this season, its roster is deep and full of scoring threats.
The Crimson Tide have seven players playing at least 15 minutes per game and seven who are averaging at least seven points per game. Having a rotation like that allows them to stay fresh and lean on different scorers to put up points.
When faced with a strong SEC opponent last time around with the Aggies, Ohio State wasn’t able to cover and lost by seven.
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Alabama vs Ohio State spread and Over/Under analysis
The Tide opened between 7.5 and 8.5 point favorites and remain there, with a few books coming down to seven points. Oats’ team is 4-0 against the spread this year and this is their first single-digit spread of the season. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are 0-3-1 ATS.
The game total opened between 150 and 151, with most books coming up to 152.5. Alabama has hit the Over in three of its first four games this season, and this will be their second-lowest total of the year. The Buckeyes are 2-2 to the O/U thus far, having cashed the Over against Oakland and Texas A&M.
Alabama vs Ohio State betting trend to know
Ohio State has hit the game total Over in nine of its last 18 games at home (+0.20 Units / 1% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. Ohio State.
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Alabama vs Ohio State game info
| Location: | Raider Arena, Niceville, FL |
| Date: | Friday, November 24, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Alabama vs Ohio State key injuries
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