One Big 12 game on the hardcourt to look forward to on New Year’s Eve features the Arizona State Sun Devils (9-2) against the BYU Cougars (9-2) in Provo, Utah.
Which team will get off to a 1-0 start in conference play following an impressive non-conference slate of the schedule?
Check out our college basketball picks for Tuesday, December 31 to find out in our Arizona State vs. BYU predictions.
Arizona State vs BYU prediction
My best bet
Arizona State +9.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The BYU Cougars have won 13 straight games at home while the Arizona State Sun Devils have lost four straight road contests, so how can a bettor possibly consider taking the underdog?
That’s exactly what I’m doing on New Year’s Eve. I believe that BYU’s dominance in Provo, combined with its strong performance against underwhelming opposition in non-conference play, has created an inflated line that is not supported by the full consideration of both teams’ merits when evaluating the numbers.
Let’s start with the numbers. BYU ranks 43rd overall in KenPom, just 12 spots ahead of Arizona State. The Cougars haven’t proven proficient on the defensive end, ranking 76th in adjusted efficiency—making their defense the worst statistical unit on the court on Tuesday.
Now for the schedule. BYU has faced one team ranked better than 80th in KenPom, and it lost that game by 11 points to Mississippi, albeit in overtime. Winning a lot of home games in a row is nice, but it has been against down opponents, and Arizona State will present a tougher challenge.
The Sun Devils have performed better than expected under Bobby Hurley. Their only two losses have come against No. 18 Gonzaga and No. 6 Florida. There’s no shame at all in those losses, especially since they kept things close against the Zags and the lopsided result against the Gators can somewhat be pinned on big man Basheer Jihad’s foul troubles.
BYU has been happy to let teams bomb away from downtown, ranking 321st in three-pointers allowed per game (8.8) and 279th in three-point percentage allowed (35%). Arizona State is shooting 38.5% from beyond the arc (32nd nationally) and has four regulars averaging at least 1.4 triples per game — Joson Sanon, Adam Miller, BJ Freeman, and Alston Mason.
Arizona State has been a covering machine at 8-3 ATS. Let’s ride the train until it goes off the rails.
Arizona State vs BYU same-game parlay
Arizona State +10.5
Over 148.5
Both teams play at a similar tempo — BYU ranks 154th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo while Arizona State is right ahead at 153rd. There shouldn’t be much of a pace war or feeling out process as both teams will be comfortable playing at their desired pace.
BYU’s defense is still a bit of a concern. They check in at 142nd in Haslametrics’ field goal percentage allowed vs. the average opponent, which is something that you’d like to see improve before facing the gauntlet that will be the Big 12 portion of the schedule.
Arizona State started the season 6-1 O/U before a run of four straight Unders. The Sun Devils have typically featured in high-scoring games when matched with another capable offensive team, and BYU certainly fits that bill. The Cougars are averaging 85.6 ppg and it’d be a surprise if the offense hits a wall at the Marriott Center.
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Arizona State vs BYU odds
Arizona State vs BYU live odds
Arizona State vs BYU opening odds
- Spread: Arizona State +9.5 | BYU -9.5
- Moneyline: Arizona State +390 | BYU -525
- Over/Under: Over 148.5 | Under 148.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Arizona State vs BYU betting trend to know
Arizona State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona State vs. BYU. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona State vs. BYU.
How to watch Arizona State vs BYU
| Location: | Marriott Center, Provo, UT |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-31-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Arizona State vs BYU key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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