Arizona vs Arizona State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Defense Will Lead to Low-Scoring Affair

Arizona and Arizona State have enjoyed success this season, but for opposite reasons. The Wildcats' hot offense will match up against the Sun Devils' stout defense, and our college basketball picks have ASU's style controlling the game.

JD Yonke - Contributor at Covers.com
JD Yonke • Contributor
Dec 31, 2022 • 09:23 ET • 4 min read
Oumar Ballo Arizona Wildcats NCAAB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

There’s nothing like a rivalry on New Year’s Eve to send off the year’s revels with some bad blood.

The No. 5 Arizona Wildcats are becoming a popular team in the National Championship futures market for a second straight season as Tommy Lloyd has seemingly done little else than win basketball games since taking over as head coach.

The Arizona State Sun Devils are certainly no pushover this season, however, as Bobby Hurley has his squad playing excellent basketball.

Who will come out on top in this rivalry game?

Check out our college basketball betting picks and predictions for Arizona vs. Arizona State on Saturday, December 31 to find out. 

Arizona vs Arizona State best odds

Arizona vs Arizona State picks and predictions

Arizona arrives in this contest as KenPom’s No. 8 ranked team in the nation, ranking first in adjusted offensive efficiency and averaging the second-most points in the country at 90.2 points per game. 

Forward Azuolas Tubelis is already established enough that 2022 can’t truly be considered a breakout year, but he’s really reached another level. The 6-foot-11 Lithuanian is averaging 20.1 ppg to pair with 8.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.1 steals, and 0.9 blocks.

Big man Oumar Ballo was impressive last season in limited minutes, and he’s shined in a bigger role this season to the tune of 17.8 ppg, 9.1 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks. Three other players average double figures in ppg — Courtney Ramey (11.7), Kerr Kriisa (11.4), and Pelle Larsson (10.8). 

One spot that the Wildcats appear to have taken a step back from a year ago is on the defensive end. Arizona is ranked 67th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, surrendering 73.8 ppg to rank 304th nationally in scoring defense. Playing at the 11th-fastest tempo (according to KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric) has some say in that, but early returns are evidence that this is not an elite defensive unit. 

Speaking of elite defensive units — Arizona State is close, surrendering just 64.1 ppg. The Sun Devils lock down on opposing teams, allowing them to hit just 36.7% of their field goal attempts — the 11th-best mark nationally. The offense isn’t elite, but five different players average double-figures in a well-rounded effort headed by DJ Horne (12.5 ppg). 

Although Arizona’s offense is undeniably elite, I like the Under in this spot as Arizona State has an excellent defense and the game plan will revolve around slowing things down and muddying up the style of play.

This game is being played in Tempe and it's a rivalry, so I’m more confident in ASU being able to execute its game plan than I otherwise would be in different circumstances.

The Sun Devils are somewhat inept offensively, and their shooting percentages are actually unappealing to look at — 283rd in field goal percentage (42.3%), 265th in 3-point percentage (32.2%), and 269th from the charity stripe (67.9%). This all points me toward the Under. 

My best bet: Under 155.5 (-110 at bet365)

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Arizona vs Arizona State spread analysis

The line resides between Arizona -6 and -6.5 depending on the book at the time of this writing. 

Evaluating Arizona State is a bit strange at this juncture given its resume reveals two different teams — the one that started the season 11-1, and the one that fell apart in a 97-60 loss to San Francisco.

The Sun Devils’ last game was against the Dons back on December 21 and it's hard to put into words just how bad of a loss it was. They were completely run off the floor, losing the first half 50-23 in an abysmal effort. So, is that a blip in the radar, or a sign of things to come?

I”m inclined to believe that showing isn’t a true indication of what to expect from Arizona State moving forward. Not every opponent will shoot 15 of 29 from 3-point range like San Francisco did in that matchup. The Sun Devils normally have a stout 3-point defense that still ranks 89th nationally (30.7%) even after that ugly showing — so a return to the mean could be in order. 

Arizona has been overvalued this season in the betting market, going just 5-7-1 ATS. Given that there’s no confidence in Arizona State currently following such a pathetic showing in its last game, I’d normally be inclined to believe the Sun Devils could be undervalued.

Still, six points is not enough for me to pay to find out — I’ll need to see it again before I believe it and place my hard-earned cash behind Hurley’s squad. This spread does seem a tad short. 

Arizona vs Arizona State Over/Under analysis

Arizona State has been a profitable 8-5 to the Under this season. Playing at Desert Financial Arena has led to some low-scoring contests over the last year and change as the Sun Devils are 19-7 to the Under in their last 26 home games.

The identity of this year’s team is clearly to make things ugly and win games off a suffocating defense, which will work in some spots and not in others — ahem, San Francisco, anyone? 

Despite possessing an elite offense, the Wildcats haven’t been a profitable team to the Over lately. As a matter of fact, Arizona is just 1-3 to the Over in its last four games, and the lone cover came by just a point and a half.

The betting market is well aware of this team’s style of play, and bookmakers are pricing them accordingly. You find much value in many of the totals in Wildcats’ Overs in 2022 unless you pick and choose your spots wisely.

It’s not the strongest narrative play, admittedly (I like the Under for other reasons better), but there’s reason to suspect these teams to play tight in a rivalry game tipping off at noon local time. Hurley will have ten full days to cram tape and focus on fixing the defensive errors that plagued his team against the Dons, so a repeat effort would be a surprise. 

Arizona vs Arizona State betting trend to know

The Under is 19-7 in Arizona State’s last 16 home games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Arizona vs. Arizona State.

Arizona vs Arizona State game info

Location: Desert Financial Arena, Tempe, AZ
Date: Saturday, December 31, 2022
Tip-off: 2:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

Arizona vs Arizona State key injuries

Arizona: No injuries to report.
Arizona State: Marcus Bagley F (Out).

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JD Yonke
Contributor

JD is a diehard college football fan with five years of experience writing betting and fantasy content for publications such as SportsGrid, Fantasy Points, Fantrax, and Devy Watch. An avid reader, he uses his inclination to look at things with an exhausting and in-depth, analytic viewpoint combined with a love for statistics and metrics to form a well-rounded handicapping approach.

e's an integral member of the niche (but growing!) college fantasy football community, twice traveling to Canton, OH for the Fantasy Football Expo as a member of the CFF King's Classic drafting squad. His specialization in college football DFS and prop betting taught him that there are exploitable markets to be found and that narrowing your focus is integral to being a profitable bettor.

A lifelong Californian who grew up playing baseball, basketball, football, and lacrosse, he's glad to share a passionate love for sports with this wonderful community.

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