The No. 20 ranked St. John's Red Storm welcome the Xavier Musketeers to Madison Square Garden tonight.
The Johnnies beat the Musketeers 82-72 when these teams previously clashed two weeks ago, and my Xavier vs. St. John's predictions are betting on another shootout tonight.
Here are my free college basketball picks for this Big East showdown on January 22.
Xavier vs St. John's prediction
My best bet
Over 149.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Both schools have highly-rated defenses, but given their offensive firepower and tendency to push the pace, this total seems a tad too low at 149.5.
Keep in mind the St. John's Red Storm are 12th in the country in average length of possession (15.3 seconds) while the Xavier Musketeers are 59th (16.2 seconds).
When these two previously clashed on January 7, the O/U was set at 152.5, and the Over hit despite both teams combining to shoot just 6-for-34 (17.6%) from deep.
With both sides sitting outside the Top 170 in opponent 3-point percentage and Xavier 27th in 3-point percentage (38.1%), expect positive regression in that area.
Xavier is fresh off a 59-57 upset win on the road against No. 10 Marquette. Despite appearing like a defensive battle, the truth is both teams got open looks but failed to convert. ShotQualityBets modeled the game with a score of 77-74 based on the quality of shots taken and allowed.
The Musketeers average 77.3 points per game despite missing leading scorer Zach Freemantle (16.8 ppg on 51 FG%) for a three-game stretch in December. Xavier's offense uses excellent ball movement, and the inside-out duo of Freemantle and Ryan Conwell (16.5 ppg on 44/39/82 shooting splits) is tough to stop.
Meanwhile, the Johnnies average 80.6 ppg and have four players averaging double digits in points, led by RJ Luis Jr. and his 17.8 ppg. Expect them to put up plenty of points against a Xavier side that struggles to defend in transition.
Xavier vs St. John's same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 149.5
St. John's -3.5
Zuby Ejiofor Over 8.5 rebounds
The Musketeers have lost seven of their last 11 games against high-major foes and this could be a letdown spot after upsetting Marquette on Saturday.
The Johnnies have won nine of their last 10 games overall and have gone a perfect 12-0 at home this season. I'm wary of laying 7.5 points with them, but I'll push this spread down to -3.5 since I expect them to cover by at least a possession.
St. John's dominated Xavier on the glass in that previous meeting boasting a +20 rebounding margin. Center Zuby Ejiofor owned the paint with 12 boards in that contest, and he has now grabbed nine or more rebounds in four straight games.
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Xavier vs St. John's odds
Xavier vs St. John's live odds
Xavier vs St. John's opening odds
- Spread: Xavier +7.5 | St. John's -7.5
- Moneyline: Xavier +260 | St. John's -320
- Over/Under: Over 149 | Under 149
Odds courtesy of bet365
Xavier vs St. John's betting trend to know
The Over is 5-3 of the last eight meetings between these Big East foes, with seven of those contests seeing at least 154 total points on the board. Find more college basketball betting trends for Xavier vs. St. John's.
How to watch Xavier vs St. John's
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date | Wednesday, 1-22-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Fox Sports 1 |
Xavier vs St. John's key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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