A pair of Top 25 teams square off at the Mackey Arena on Friday where the No. 11 Purdue Boilermakers host the No. 21 Michigan Wolverines.
Dusty May has quickly turned around this Wolverines program but my Michigan vs. Purdue predictions are backing the Boilermakers after they let a home game slip through their fingers earlier this week.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this Big Ten clash on January 24.
Michigan vs Purdue prediction
My best bet
Purdue -3.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Purdue Boilermakers are coming off a rare home loss on Tuesday night when they lost 73-70 to Ohio State. Purdue had a 13-point lead at half but took their foot off the pedal with eight minutes left in the game and allowed the Buckeyes to go on a 15-0 run.
The Michigan Wolverines are 14-4 but haven't looked impressive in their last two games. They lost to a bad Minnesota squad in overtime last week before edging Northwestern in OT as 9.5-point home faves on Sunday.
The Boilermakers looked vulnerable defensively earlier in the season but have really tightened up in conference play. Since the start of January they are allowing just 61.3 ppg while ranking 36th in the country in defensive rebounding rate and 16th in opponent turnover rate.
That last stat is particular important for this matchup since the Wolverines are just 318th in the country in turnover rate. The Boilermakers might not be able to completely stop this up-tempo Wolverines attack but should be able to disrupt them enough for their highly-efficient offense to pull away.
Michigan does a great job at protecting the rim but sits outside the Top 200 at defending midrange and post up shots per ShotQualityBets. Purdue takes plenty of shots from those areas, ranking 55th in midrange frequency and 33rd in post-up frequency.. The Boilermakers are also 17th in the country in 3-point percentage (38.4%) with the number surging to 43.4% at home.
With that improving defense and smooth-shooting offense, bet on Purdue to bounce back from that loss to OSU.
Michigan vs Purdue same-game parlay (SGP)
Purdue -3.5
Under 152.5
Vladislav Goldin Over 5.5 rebounds
The Wolverines have been an Over machine lately but but their last two games only eclipsed the total after going into overtime. The Boilermakers are 297th in the country in adjusted tempo and since I'm betting on their improved defense to lead them to a cover here, the Under makes sense in this SGP.
While Purdue was carried by center Zach Edey last season, this year's team is far less imposing in the paint and ranks 134th in rebounding rate. Meanwhile, Michigan is 21st in rebounding rate and is anchored by a pair of seven-footers in Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf.
Goldin has pulled down 7+ boards in seven of his last 10 games and is averaging 7.2 rpg over that span. Two of the contests where he went below that number were blowout victories where he logged fewer than 20 minutes.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Michigan vs Purdue odds
Michigan vs Purdue live odds
Michigan vs Purdue opening odds
- Spread: Michigan +4.5 | -4.5
- Moneyline: Michigan +155 | Purdue -185
- Over/Under: Over 151 | Under 151
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Michigan vs Purdue betting trend to know
The Boilermakers have gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight games in Big Ten play. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. Purdue.
How to watch Michigan vs Purdue
| Location | Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN |
| Date | Friday, 1-24-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Michigan vs Purdue key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
