Arizona vs California Odds, Picks and Predictions: Can Cal Keep Up?

Conference basketball is finally here, and we have a terrific opening night Pac-12 matchup when the No. 4 Arizona Wildcats take on the California Golden Bears.

Arizona has dropped two of their last three, including a 96-95 double overtime home loss to FAU. California has also dropped two of their last three but defeated UC San Diego 71-67 last time out.

Please join me as I take a closer look at the college basketball odds with my free college basketball picks as I preview Arizona vs. California on Friday, December 29.

Arizona vs California best odds

Arizona vs California picks and predictions

These two Pac-12 rivals have quite a history. The Arizona Wildcats have won the last 10 meetings, and four of the previous five games cleared whatever total the bookmakers hung on the board.

Arizona covered the spread in eight of those 10 victories, like how this season has gone for the Wildcats. They're 9-2 on the season and 9-2-0 ATS. When the Wildcats win, they usually cover the spread.

They have good shooters everywhere, they boast a 1.6 assist-to-turnover ratio, and clean both ends of the glass at a high level with a better-than-average turnover ratio. They’ve won on the road at Duke and are 4-2 against KenPom-ranked teams No. 21 or better.

The numbers Arizona has been putting up are mind-blowing, but even more impressive is that they aren’t playing against cupcakes. They’ve gone 4-2 against nationally-ranked opponents this season and are 4-2-0 ATS in those contests. When they win, they usually cover.

The Wildcats have five double-digit scorers that can outshoot teams from everywhere, but where they have a distinct edge against most opponents — including tonight’s Pac-12 foe in the California Golden Bears — is they get plenty of swipes that turn into 15.3 points per game.

Arizona traps and suffocates ball-handlers as well as anyone in the country. Teams with turnover issues have difficulties playing the Wildcats, and Cal has major turnover issues. The Golden Bears commit 13.4 turnovers per game, and their opponents average 15.6 points from those miscues. That's not going to fly against Arizona.

Cal is a decent shooting team and it usually enjoys a size advantage and is slightly longer than Arizona. The Golden Bears crash the offensive glass at a high level, but according to ShotQuality, they don’t attack the cup and rarely get to the charity stripe.

They get their swipes and score 13.4 per game from turnovers, but their own miscues have hurt them this season, and that will be the case again tonight.

Turnovers and points from turnovers will be the soundtrack to this tilt. Arizona is the much better team, is battle-tested on the road, and is 9-2-0 ATS. The Wildcats do the little things much better than Cal does, and the points from turnovers will be the catalyst for them to cover the spread.

Hold your nose, lay the points, and watch Arizona cover the number tonight.

My best bet: Arizona -13.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Arizona vs California same-game parlay

Arizona -13.5

Over 156.5

+238 at FanDuel

We’re following two historical series trends with this same-game parlay combination paying +238. Of the last 10 meetings between these programs, Arizona is 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS. 

I expect the turnover-prone Golden Bears to have real issues dealing with this Wildcats defense. Those resulting points allowed from turnovers will be Cal’s undoing, and it will be hard for the Golden Bears to otherwise keep up.

And while this total is sky-high, this series has seen these teams go Over the total in each of the last four meetings. Arizona plays at one of the fastest tempos in the land and is deadly from behind the arc.

Cal is a good shooting team from downtown, does a terrific job on the offensive glass, and drains their free throws. The tempo should be there, and if Cal can get hot from long range, this game easily exceeds that big total. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Arizona vs California spread and Over/Under analysis

Arizona opened as high as -19.5 points at TonyBet, and the number slowly descended to -13.5 (-110) across the board. That was a few too many points for this game and the number was rightfully hammered down.

Normally, I wouldn’t lay this many points on the road in a conference matchup, but the move all the way down to -13.5 is an overreaction. We'll accept that, say thank you, and watch Arizona cover the spread.

All the value on the Golden Bears is gone and the only way to play Cal now is for the spread to rise to +18 or better. I wouldn’t count on that happening, but I can see Cal getting 15 points at closing.

The line movement on the total was heaviest at Caesars. They opened 156.5, and the public has played tennis with this number ever since. The number hit 157 twice after opening but has settled for now at 156.5. 

Over bettors can find at some books while most major shops have 156.5 (-110) on their betting boards. Under bettors won’t find a better number than 156.5, but if you wait long enough, this game might close at 157.5.

The public loves high-scoring affairs, and the promise of one here might drive the number up.

Arizona vs California betting trend to know

Ar izona is 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 13 points or more. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona vs California.

Arizona vs California game info

Arizona vs California key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic