Arizona vs USC Odds, Picks and Predictions: Trojans Go to War Against Wildcats

Fresh off celebrating their regular season championship, the No. 5 Arizona Wildcats head to Southern California to face the USC Trojans at the Galen Center on Saturday night. 

This game may seem devoid of intrigue at first glance, considering Arizona has already earned the title of Pac-12 champs, and USC is near the bottom of the standings, but there’s more to this matchup than may initially meet the eye. 

The Wildcats are still battling for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and could use any win that they can get to strengthen their case. The Trojans have been on fire lately, winning four of their last six games, with the losses coming by a combined six points to second-place No. 18 Washington State and third-place Colorado.

If you’re into following the Bronny James saga, there’s that for your viewing pleasure as well. 

According to today’s college basketball odds, the Wildcats are -8 on the road, while the total has been set at 160.

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Arizona vs. USC on Saturday, March 9.

Arizona vs USC best odds

Arizona vs USC picks and predictions

There was a time this season when the story with this Arizona Wildcats team was that they were one of the most talented teams in the country but still simply could not find success on the road. After winning five straight away games to help win the regular season Pac-12 Championship, that storyline has been put to rest a bit. 

The most recent road win for Tommy Lloyd’s squad came on Thursday night against the UCLA Bruins in the first leg of this two-game Southern California road trip. The Wildcats dominated from start to finish in an 88-65 display of utter superiority. 

They still have some work to do if they want to lock up a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Tennessee jumped them as the final No. 1 seed according to most projections on Bracket Matrix, so the Wildcats will likely need to win out and hope that the Vols stumble in the SEC Tournament. 

Saturday’s opponent is the USC Trojans. Entering the season as a Top-10 team, Andy Enfield’s squad fell completely flat and even lost six straight games at one point during the darkest of days. They’ve since flipped the script, however, winning four of their last six games. 

It’s not far-fetched to say that USC is a dark horse heading into the Pac-12 Tournament. Despite currently sitting 11th out of 12 teams in the conference standings, the Trojans possess one of the nation’s best backcourts in Isaiah Collier and Boogie Ellis and have enough skill around them to take down any team in its path if this current form projects forward. 

Collier and Ellis combine to average 33.6 points and 7.2 assists per game. To my eyes, Collier is the best player in the conference and one of the most special talents in the country, whereas Ellis is finally healthy after struggling through a hamstring injury for a prolonged stretch. He dropped 28 points in Thursday’s 81-73 win over Arizona State and is now averaging 20.8 ppg across his last five games. 

You can’t put much stock into the initial matchup, because neither Ellis nor Collier saw the floor in Arizona’s 82-67 win in Tucson. 

I’m always willing to take an opposing player’s prop against Arizona if the price is right. The Wildcats operate at a fast pace (15th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric) which leads to 77 possessions per game, the fourth-most nationally. More possessions equals more opportunities to rack up statistics in the box score. 

It’s not Collier or Ellis that I’m targeting, however, as the books have finally appropriately adjusted their props after offering an insane amount of value for a few weeks. Rather, their presence should help open up the floor and create opportunities for teammates. 

The Wildcats struggle to defend the arc, ranking 284th in 3-pointers allowed per game (8.1) and 293rd in threes attempted per game (24.1). One player who should benefit from this matchup is wing DJ Rodman, who shoots 37.2% from beyond the arc. 

Rodman’s role has increased as the season has gone along, averaging 33.4 minutes played in his last five games. He’ll be on the floor for most of the game in a pace-up spot against a team culpable of surrendering 3-point looks, so I’m happy with this matchup. 

I’ll take the large plus money on Rodman to can at least two threes on Saturday night.

My best bet: DJ Rodman 2+ threes made (+174 at FanDuel)

Arizona vs USC same-game parlay

Isaiah Collier 15+ points 

Boogie Ellis Over 2.5 threes made

USC +8

+294 at DraftKings

Collier has been filling it up lately, scoring at least 15 points in six of his last eight games while averaging 19 ppg in that span. His props are finally starting to inflate a bit, but I still like his chances of scoring at least 15 points considering he does so with regularity and possessions will be plentiful. 

Ellis is a sniper from downtown who shoots 42.5% on 7.2 3-point attempts per game. He’s been terrific at home, averaging 19.2 ppg on 45.8% shooting. In those games, he’s averaging 3.5 made threes per game at a blistering 45.1%. 

With Collier and Ellis both playing terrific basketball lately, I like USC’s chances of covering this large spread at home. Arizona already has the regular season championship locked up and may not be fully motivated to run its players into the ground preceding the Pac-12 Tournament, whereas the Trojans are surging and will look to carry that momentum forward by any means possible. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Arizona vs USC spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened at Arizona -8.5 before being bet down to -7.5 at some books. It’s since risen back up to -8 at most spots but it appears there will be some further movement before tip-off, so follow the action using our college basketball line movement tool before placing your wager. 

Arizona has been a profitable team to back all season at 20-9-1 ATS, whereas USC is slightly in the red at 14-16 ATS. That being said, this is the most points USC has caught in its last 12 games. The other was when the Trojans were +8 in Pullman against Washington State and nearly pulled off the outright upset before blowing a second-half lead to fall 72-75. 

The first time these teams met, USC was +21 on the road but still covered despite being without Collier and Ellis. The Trojans are 3-0 ATS in the last three games with a line of +8 or more. 

Enfield’s team has played much better with a full bill of health. When all five starters — Ellis, Collier, Rodman, Kobe Johnson, and Joshua Morgan — are healthy, the Trojans have a 9-4 record. 

Now for the total. It opened at 159.5 but has since moved to 160 across most books. Some are beginning to show 160.5, so there may be more upward movement before tip-off. 

USC’s offense has taken off now that the lineup is finally healthy, averaging 75.7 ppg across its last nine games. The Trojans have been mightily profitable to the Over, going 20-10 O/U. 

On the flip side, Arizona’s offense is no joke. The Wildcats average 90.3 ppg while shooting a blistering 49.6% from the field. They check in at sixth in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and shouldn’t have a whole lot of trouble scoring on a USC defense that allows 74.8 ppg. 

Arizona vs USC betting trend to know

USC has hit at least eight 3-pointers in four of its last five games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona vs. USC.

Arizona vs USC game info

Arizona vs USC key injuries

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