The No. 3 ranked Iowa State Cyclones host the No. 25 Baylor Bears in NCAA hoops action this afternoon.
These have been two of the most explosive offenses in the country, and my Baylor vs Iowa State predictions expect a shootout in Ames.
Here are my free college basketball picks for this Big 12 clash on January 4.
Baylor vs Iowa State prediction
My best bet
Over 152 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Iowa State Cyclones led the country in adjusted defensive efficiency last year, but their middling offense handed them an L in the Sweet 16. This season, they've taken a small step back defensively (18th in adjusted defense) but have vastly improved on the other end of the floor, where they play at a fast tempo and rank third in adjusted offense.
The Cyclones have scored at least 79 points in every contest this season, and they're seventh in the country in scoring (89.7 ppg). Iowa State also sits 16th in 2-point percentage (59.4%), 31st in free throw rate, and turns the ball over at the sixth-lowest rate (13.1%).
That last number is particularly important because the Baylor Bears have been heavily reliant on forcing turnovers on defense. If they can't cause havoc with their ball pressure, they get burned with Quad 1 opponents shooting 58.3% from inside the arc against them.
That said, Iowa State's defense also relies on generating turnovers, and Baylor's backcourt does a good job of taking care of the ball. Freshmen Robert Wright and V.J. Edgecombe are getting better by the week and transfer Jeremy Roach has been a steadying influence after starting four years at Duke.
The Bears are sixth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and all five of their starters average double-digit points. They also shoot 36.9% from the arc, and per ShotQualityBets, ISU is outside the Top 250 in allowing high-quality threes.
With KenPom projecting 157 points in this game and Bart Torvik projecting 155, take the Over 152.
Baylor vs Iowa State same-game parlay
Over 152
Iowa State -3.5
Jayden Nunn Over 1.5 threes
Baylor is 9-3 but has been exposed by quality teams. The Bears were curb-stomped by Gonzaga, lost by 15 points to Tennessee, and also came up short against UConn.
The Cyclones are 11-1, with their only defeat coming on a last-second shot by No. 2 ranked Auburn. I'm reluctant to lay 8.5 points with them, but they haven't lost at home since the 2022-23 season, and I expect them to win a two-possession game.
Jayden Nunn led Baylor with 43.9 3PT% last season, and he's been even better this year, converting 49.3% of his shots from deep. He's knocked down at least a pair of threes in nine out of his last 11 games and should have success against an ISU squad allowing open looks at the arc.
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Baylor vs Iowa State odds
Baylor vs Iowa State live odds
Baylor vs Iowa State opening odds
- Spread: Baylor +8.5 | Iowa State -8.5
- Moneyline: Baylor +300 | Iowa State -380
- Over/Under: Over 152 | Under 152
Odds courtesy of bet365
Baylor vs Iowa State betting trend to know
Both of these teams are 7-2 to the Over in their last nine lined games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Baylor vs. Iowa State.
How to watch Baylor vs Iowa State
| Location: | Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IA |
| Date: | Saturday, 1-4-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Baylor vs Iowa State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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