Buckle up for the Mountain West Championship. The Boise State Broncos (24-9) face the Colorado State Rams (24-9) in a game between two red-hot teams looking to capture glory.
There are NCAA Tournament implications as neither team has necessarily locked down a spot in the Big Dance, amplifying the tension.
Niko Medved’s squad has been undeniable lately, so I’m backing them to cover the short spread with my Boise State vs. Colorado State predictions and college basketball picks for Saturday, March 15.
Who will win Boise State vs Colorado State?
Colorado State (-110) will capture the 2025 Mountain West Championship. The Rams swept the regular season, winning 75-72 at home and 83-73 on the road. They’ve been nearly invincible lately, going 10-1 straight up and ATS in their last 11 games.
Boise State vs Colorado State prediction
My best bet: Colorado State +1 (-115 at bet365)
The Colorado State Rams have been one of the best teams in the country lately. Since February 1, they rank 19th in BartTorvik — 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 49th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Niko Medved’s squad has won 10 of its last 11 games (10-1 ATS) and 14 of its last 16 (13-3 ATS) in a magical run. Do you want to step in front of that train and bet that it all crumbles in the year's biggest game?
I certainly don’t.
Their opponent, the Boise State Broncos, is also on a tear, going 11-2 in their last 13 games (10-3 ATS). Leon Rice’s team checks in at 44th in BartTorvik since February 1 (63rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, 39th in adjusted defensive efficiency).
The Rams got the better of both regular season matchups, winning by three points at home as a one-point underdog on ten points on the road as a six-point underdog.
They have routinely been undervalued by oddsmakers and their strong finish puts them at 20-13 ATS on the season.
It helps having one of the most productive players in the country. Nique Clifford is a menace, averaging 18.6 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 4.3 assists.
He shows up to dominate every game and is a reliable presence that’s given his team stability during its torrid stretch.
Colorado State’s potent offense shoots the 3-point shot well (35.7%) and is proficient at finishing by the rim (20th in near-proximity field goal percentage per Haslametrics).
Boise State’s defense isn’t well-positioned to shut down either look, ranking 151st in 3-point defense and 185th in near-proximity defense.
On the flip side, the Broncos prefer to get the cup and finish inside looks.
Medved’s defense philosophy has involved walling off those opportunities, ranking 16th in near-proximity attempt rate.
Neither team is assured an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament and can be considered a bubble team.
That means either could be viewed as a bid-stealer, and motivation should be equal on both sidelines for a hotly-contested championship game.
I’m riding with the red-hot Rams and their star player, Nique Clifford, to handle business.
Boise State vs Colorado State same-game parlay (SGP)
Colorado State ML
Under 138.5
There’s a tendency for college basketball teams to play in low-scoring games in a championship environment. The lights seem to get a little brighter, the legs get a little bit more tired, and the baskets get a little bit more difficult to come by.
As a bettor, I like to ride this angle unless the predicted game flow gives me a strong reason to think otherwise — which, in this case, it doesn’t.
Neither team plays in a hurry, and that methodical pace could be magnified with a championship — and perhaps a berth in the NCAA Tournament — on the line. Boise State is 316th in adjusted tempo since February 1 while Colorado State isn’t far ahead at 271st.
The Rams are very reliant on Clifford and will be playing their third game in as many days, so it wouldn't behoove them to press the gas pedal.
The Broncos also have a star in Tyson Degenhart (17.8 points, 6.1 rebounds per game) and have been playing in low-possession games, relying on their ace to get the job done.
Boise State is 0-2 O/U in the MWC Tournament and has hit the Over just once in its last six games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Boise State vs Colorado State odds
Boise State vs Colorado State live odds
Boise State vs Colorado State opening odds
- Spread: Boise State +1.5 (-110) | Colorado State -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Boise State (-110) | Colorado State (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 137.5 (-110) | Under 137.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Boise State vs Colorado State betting trend to know
Colorado State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Boise State vs. Colorado State.
How to watch Boise State vs Colorado State
| Location | Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Saturday, 3-15-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Boise State vs Colorado State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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