You can’t blame an old college basketball bettor for feeling a little sentimental tonight.
The demise of the Pac-12 as we know it brings to a close to one of the best (or worst?) gambling scenarios.
Whether you’ve been betting on NCAA hoops for many years or you’re new to the hustle, there’s a good shot you’ve wagered on late-night Pac-12 college basketball odds — either chasing your losses from earlier in the day or trying to double-up your winnings.
One of three 11 p.m. ET tipoffs on Thursday's finale of the Pac-12 regular season sees the Stanford Cardinal hosting the California Golden Bears. And with both teams well below .500, it’s fitting that this is a game only gamblers could love.
I size up the spread and Over/Under total for this “Get Even or Get Even Deeper” Pac-12 finale and give my best college basketball picks and predictions for Cal vs. Stanford on March 7.
California vs Stanford best odds
California vs Stanford picks and predictions
A six-game skid has stuffed Stanford into the bottom third of the Pac-12, and with the school moving to the ACC next year and head coach Jerod Haase on his way out, this Pac-12 finale means jack squat to the Cardinal.
Motivation may be lacking for the home team, but that isn’t the case for California. Not only can the Golden Bears jump to as high as No. 5 in the conference just ahead of the postseason, but picking up a win in Stanford would mean the world to first-year Cal coach Mark Madsen, who played his college ball for the Cardinal.
“Mad Dog” can get to .500 in Pac-12 play with a victory, which is an impressive turnaround for a program that finished last season with only two wins in conference competition.
Cal can take advantage of a Stanford defense that appears to have checked out sometime around Feb. 23. The Cardinal have given up tallies of 81, 85, and 90 points in the three games since, while allowing those foes an effective field goal rate of 60.2%. Those opponents also knocked down 42.5% of their attempts from beyond the arc — not what you want when facing the Golden Bears.
California lives and dies by the triple, firing up almost 27 3-point attempts per road game on the year. The Golden Bears pick up more than 35% of their total offense from outside, averaging just short of nine 3-pointers per game.
Even when they gave a shit, the Cardinal were piss-poor at protecting the perimeter. Stanford ranks dead last in 3-point percentage allowed in the Pac-12 and sits 337th and 317th in points allowed per play to “catch and shoot” and “off-the-dribble” 3-point sets, according to ShotQualityBets.com.
Game models call for a Stanford win (ranging from 3 to 5 points versus the 4.5-point spread), but I just don’t see it, especially if the Cardinal are without do-it-all forward Spencer Jones again (game-time decision with a wrist injury).
My best bet: Cal Golden Bears +4.5 (-110 at Fanatics)
California vs Stanford same-game parlay
Cal +4.5
Jalen Cone Over 2.5 threes made
Jalen Cone Over 13.5 points
California is playing for postseason placement in this regular-season finale and facing a Stanford side that has checked out.
Jalen Cone is projected for three makes from downtown, facing a Cardinal defense that can’t defend the perimeter. He's scored 14 points or more in four of his last five games and gets the senior “green light” in his final regular-season showing.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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California vs Stanford spread and Over/Under analysis
The college basketball odds opened with Stanford as short as -3.5, and that spread has climbed to as high as -4.5 as of noon ET Thursday. According to Covers Consensus, 66% of picks are laying the points with the home team.
The Cardinal enter on a six-game losing slide and have only one victory in their last nine games, lugging a 2-7 ATS count in that span. Stanford sits near the bottom of the conference in defensive fortitude and has allowed scores of 81, 85, and 90 points in its last three games. At home, the Cardinal are 9-6 SU and 8-7 ATS.
Stanford has a notable injury to monitor ahead of tonight’s tipoff, with senior forward Spencer Jones (wrist) missing the past three games. Jones averages almost 11 points and four rebounds and is one of the Cardinal’s best two-way players.
California isn’t that much better, but has at least shown signs of life in recent outings. The Golden Bears are on a two-game slump after winning three straight, going 3-2 ATS in that five-game stretch.
Cal depends on 3-pointers for the bulk of its offense, but shoots worse than 33% from beyond the arc on the road. It’s 6-4 ATS in true road games and 13-6-1 ATS as an underdog.
The Golden Bears did win the first matchup with the Cardinal this season, edging the Tree 73-71 as 2.5-point home underdogs way back on January 26. That final score played Under the closing total of 154.5 points.
Tonight’s total opened at that same number and has held steady as of Thursday afternoon. Covers Consensus shows a 51% lean to the Under.
Stanford has played below the total in four of its last six games heading into tonight. On the season, the Cardinal are 16-12-1 Over/Under with a 13-2 O/U count inside Maples Pavilion.
Cal is 18-12 O/U overall, including a 6-4 O/U mark in true road games. The Golden Bears are 4-2 O/U in their last six contests coming into the regular season finale. They’ve finished 14-6 O/U in their 20 games as betting underdogs.
California vs Stanford betting trend to know
The California Golden Bears are 13-6-1 ATS as underdogs this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for California vs. Stanford.
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California vs Stanford game info
| Location: | Maples Pavillion, Stanford, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, March 7, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 11:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
California vs Stanford key injuries
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