The No. 9 Michigan State Spartans face the UCLA Bruins on Tuesday night at Pauley Pavilion.
The Spartans look to get back on track after suffering their first conference defeat at the hands of USC, while the Bruins look for their sixth win in a row.
If the Spartans come out on top, Tom Izzo will tie Bobby Knight for the most Big Ten conference wins in history. Read my Michigan State vs. UCLA predictions and college basketball picks below for more on tonight's game.
Michigan State vs UCLA prediction
My best bet
Over 139 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Mick Cronin’s UCLA Bruins have flipped the script lately, reeling off five straight victories to make up for a stretch of four consecutive losses to begin January. What’s changed?
There’s been a major offensive improvement, mainly. The Bruins have scored 78 or more points in four of those five victories, and they’ve posted an offensive efficiency above 124 in each of those four contests.
An increased role for standout (literally) big man Aday Mara has been a godsend on both ends of the court. The 7-foot-3 Spaniard sophomore is averaging 13.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 3.8 blocks in his last four games and is a matchup nightmare for most teams, the Michigan State Spartans included.
One usually thinks of Cronin’s teams as having a defense-first identity, but that hasn’t been the case with this year’s iteration lately. The Bruins rank just 53rd in defensive efficiency since the calendar flipped to 2025 (per BartTorvik) and have allowed 73.6 ppg in their last eight contests.
The Spartans fell 64-70 to USC on the first leg of this Southern California road trip. Tom Izzo’s team likes to get out and run, but he stated his team was unable to do so as they didn’t grab enough rebounds.
Expect a renewed effort on the boards from Michigan State, which ranks fourth in rebounding percentage (56.8%) compared to 111th for UCLA (51.6%). This is a pace-up spot for UCLA, given Michigan State ranks 92nd in adjusted tempo since the start of January, so I’m betting that the Bruins’ newfound way of high-scoring games continues.
The Spartans get to the line a ton (23.2 attempts per game) and have the fourth-best free-throw percentage (80.3%) in the country. UCLA tends to foul too much, which is its main concern on that end of the court in this matchup.
The Spartans have scored 73+ points in 12 of their last 14 games, and UCLA’s defense hasn’t been anything special lately. Both teams are playing well on the offensive side of the ball, and this is a low total, so I’m grabbing the Over.
Michigan State vs UCLA same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 139.5
Michigan State +3.5
Izzo’s squad has been a great bet this season at 13-8 ATS.
This is the first time the Spartans have been an underdog since January 3, when they won 69-62 at Ohio State while catching 2.5 points. Before that, they won 94-91 against UNC as 5-point dogs on November 27.
This is a good basketball team, ranking Top 30 in efficiency on both ends of the court, and there’s a reason they haven’t been underdogs much this year. UCLA’s five straight victories are impressive, and Mara is the wildcard, but the Bruins haven’t had a sustained run of consistent success like the Spartans, so I’m taking the underdog.
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Michigan State vs UCLA odds
Michigan State vs UCLA live odds
Michigan State vs UCLA opening odds
- Spread: Michigan State +2.5 | UCLA -2.5
- Moneyline: Michigan State +125 | UCLA -150
- Over/Under: Over 140.5 | Under 140.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Michigan State vs UCLA betting trend to know
UCLA is 6-2 O/U in its last eight games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. UCLA.
How to watch Michigan State vs UCLA
| Location | Pauley Pavilion, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Tuesday, 2-4-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
Michigan State vs UCLA key injuries
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