Both the No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones and No. 11 Kansas Jayhawks could use a win as they square off at The Phog tonight.
Iowa State has dropped back-to-back games against Arizona and Kansas State, while Kansas has dropped two of its last three. However the result shakes out, our Iowa State vs Kansas predictions don't anticipate a high-scoring game.
Let's dive in with our college basketball picks for Monday, February 3 ahead of this 9:00 p.m. ET tip on ESPN.
Iowa State vs Kansas prediction
My best bet
Under 144.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This is a quick turnaround for two teams that suffered ignominious defeats on Saturday. The Iowa State Cyclones were run out 80-61 by a mediocre-at-best Kansas State team, while the Kansas Jayhawks allowed 60 second-half points in an 81-70 loss to a shorthanded Baylor team.
What should we expect as a response? I’m betting on both teams focusing on their calling cards to see them through a tough time, and that just so happens to be on their respective defensive ends.
Both teams rank inside the Top 10 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency — the Cyclones sixth and the Jayhawks fifth. Both rank inside the Top 40 in rebounding percentage (Cyclones 33rd, Jayhawks 38th), so a return to basics would mean stingy defense and hard-fought rebounds to maximize possessions.
The offenses have faltered a bit in Big 12 play — Kansas ranks 44th in adjusted offensive efficiency in conference games, per BartTorvik, while Iowa State is right behind at 46th. That stands in stark opposition to adjusted defensive efficiency, where both are inside the Top 5 during Big 12 play.
The Cyclones excel offensively when they get to the cup, ranking seventh in near-proximity field goal percentage (per Haslametrics). This plays right into Kansas’ strength defensively as they are inside the Top 25 in both near-proximity attempt rate and field goal percentage.
On the flip side, the Jayhawks are also at their best offensively when they’re in the paint (first in near-proximity field-goal percentage) thanks to three effective bigs — Hunter Dickinson, Flory Bidunga, and KJ Adams. The Cyclones wall off the rim (12th in near-proximity attempt rate) and force difficult 2-point jumpers (10th in mid-range field-goal percentage).
Kansas has underperformed offensively for much of the year, leading to a 5-16 O/U record. I’m betting on another Under coming through in a game between two elite defenses on a quick turnaround from tough losses.
Iowa State vs Kansas same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 144.5
Iowa State +2.5
Although both teams are at low points in their respective seasons, they arrived there in different ways.
There’s something not quite right with Kansas. Despite having a loaded roster, the Jayhawks haven’t put it all together. They fell apart in what should’ve been a win over Houston they fumbled late, looked poor in a four-point win over UCF as a response, and then crumbled in the second half against a Baylor team that has been playing uninspiring basketball.
Although Iowa State is off two straight losses, one of those featured a last-second heave from Arizona’s Caleb Love. The odds of that game becoming a loss were microscopic, but sometimes that’s the way things go. The 80-61 loss to Kansas State was bad, but it’s also the only worrying data point on what’s otherwise been a fantastic season.
Phog is a difficult place to play and that could end up making the difference. However, I’ll take the better team that has won three of the last four meetings (including a 74-57 win this season) and is catching points.
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Iowa State vs Kansas odds
Iowa State vs Kansas live odds
Iowa State vs Kansas opening odds
- Spread: Iowa State +3 (-110) | Kansas -3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Iowa State +140 | Kansas -165
- Over/Under: Over 145.5 (-110) | Under 145.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Iowa State vs Kansas betting trend to know
Kansas is 5-16 O/U this year. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa State vs. Kansas.
How to watch Iowa State vs Kansas
| Location | Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS |
| Date | Monday, 2-3-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Iowa State vs Kansas key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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