March Madness odds are set to take a back seat to the NIT Quarterfinals when the Cincinnati Bearcats visit the Indiana State Sycamores tonight.
The Sycamores, the top seed in their region, handled Minnesota by a score of 76-64 in Round 2 to advance. The Bearcats dominated a different MVC school, Bradley, by a score of 74-57 on Saturday.
The stage is set for an intriguing matchup between two quality teams. Looking at college basketball odds, the Sycamores are favored by 3.5 points while the total resides at 154.5.
Can the betting chalk continue their dominance at home despite facing a tough Big 12 opponent? Check out my college basketball picks for Cincinnati vs. Indiana State on March 26 to find out.
Cincinnati vs Indiana State best odds
Cincinnati vs Indiana State picks and predictions
Wes Miller’s Cincinnati Bearcats found the first year of Big 12 basketball a tad bit rough, finishing with a 7-11 during conference play. That’s not to besmirch the caliber of this team, however, as life in America’s toughest conference isn’t easy sledding.
The Bearcats rank 38th overall in KenPom and excel on the defensive end, ranking 15th in adjusted efficiency while allowing only 67.7 ppg. This defense is combined with an ability to crash the boards as they rank ninth nationally in rebounding percentage (55.2%). Scoring is a by-committee approach as eight players average between 6.1 and 12.9 ppg — led by 6-foot-6 guard Daniel Skillings.
Miller’s squad faces the top seed in this region, the Indiana State Sycamores. Josh Schertz’s name has made its way around coaching search rumors after a fantastic season that saw his squad get snubbed from the NCAA Tournament.
The Sycamores ran past SMU 101-92 in Round 1 before notching a 76-64 win over Minnesota in Round 2. They check in at 41st overall in KenPom, excelling on the offensive end by ranking 18th in adjusted efficiency while putting up 84.6 ppg. Point forward Robbie Avila is a college basketball cult hero, averaging 17.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, and four assists per game.
Indiana State’s offense is the most prolific unit on the floor. The Sycamores lead the nation in 2-point field goal percentage (62.7%) and rank 11th in 3-point percentage at 38.1%. Their five-out offense is deadly and they’ve been especially difficult to get the best of at home, going 11-4 against the spread in the Hulman Center.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s victories haven’t aged very well. Only four of the Bearcats’ wins have come over NCAA Tournament teams. Three of those were against programs bounced in the very first round (BYU, TCU, Texas Tech), while the other was in the Big 12 Tournament against a Kansas team without its two best players.
My best bet: Indiana State -3.5 (-105 at bet365)
Cincinnati vs Indiana State same-game parlay
Indiana State -3.5
Robbie Avila Over 4.5 assists
Daniel Skillings Over 6.5 rebounds
Avila hasn’t been shooting the ball well, going just 5-for-20 (25%) across the first two rounds of the tournament. That being said, he’s been a man on a mission leading the offense, contributing seven assists in each game.
He may have benefitted from the experimental rules in place for this year’s NIT in which the lane has been widened from 12 feet to 16 feet. This matched the width used by both the NBA and FIBA and helps create an open-style game. Avila runs the show for the Sycamores’ potent five-out offense which stands to benefit from the lane change.
The final leg involves Cincy wing Daniel Skillings grabbing Over 6.5 rebounds. The Bearcats are an elite rebounding team and will need to crash the boards hard as part of the game plan. Indiana State’s wide-open style can make it difficult for big men to stay on the floor, but Skillings is perfect for positionless basketball as a 6-foot-6 shooter who also plays great defense, and he should be on the floor and relied upon heavily in a pace-up spot.
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Cincinnati vs Indiana State spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread opened at Indiana State -2.5 before moving up to -3.5 across the board at current..
- Indiana State is 21-14 ATS this season.
- The total opened at 155.5 but has since dipped down to 154.5.
- Indiana State is 20-15 O/U this season.
Cincinnati vs Indiana State betting trend to know
Indiana State is 11-4 ATS at home. Find more college basketball betting trends for Cincinnati vs. Indiana State.
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Cincinnati vs Indiana State game info
| Location: | Hulman Center, Terre Haute, IN |
| Date: | Tuesday, March 26, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
