Cincinnati vs Kansas Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bearcats Keep It Close in Opening Half

The Cincinnati Bearcats will look to stop losing close games as they travel to Lawrence for a showdown with the Kansas Jayhawks tonight. The college basketball odds have the Jayhawks favored to win this Big 12 showdown by more than seven points.

The Bearcats have lost three of their last four, and their game against Kansas will be their sixth in a row against ranked opposition. The three defeats have come by a combined eight points, with a four-point victory over TCU sandwiched in the middle.

Kansas enters the week ranked third in the nation but will likely fall in Monday’s polls after a five-point loss at West Virginia on Saturday. Kansas has now lost to two of the worst teams in the conference, albeit both coming on the road, and Bill Self has to be concerned with his team’s inconsistency on the defensive end.

Our college basketball picks and predictions for Cincinnati vs. Kansas on Monday, January 22 explain why you can capitalize on the Bearcats keeping games close and still stay away from the result.

Cincinnati vs Kansas best odds

Cincinnati vs Kansas picks and predictions

The Cincinnati Bearcats have either been tied at halftime or trailing by two points or fewer in each of their last four conference games. That includes a road game at Baylor, where the Bearcats lost by just three points.

They did trail by seven at the half in their conference-opening visit to BYU, but Aziz Bandaogo had just returned from injury and came off the bench. In fact, his strong second half was a key reason they came back to win by 11.

One of the main reasons Cincinnati lost to Baylor was free-throw shooting, and it's been a recurring problem for Cincinnati of late as it has lost some close games. The Bearcats went 7-for-12 from the line against the Bears. This weekend’s loss to Oklahoma was a similar story, as a 14 of 22 effort from the charity stripe proved critical in a four-point loss.

Want to take a guess what happened in the Bearcats’ one-point loss to Texas? Yep, more free-throw problems. They made just eight of their 15 attempts in that contest.

Why does this matter for our best bet? I like Cincinnati to cover the spread but I don’t want to get burned by its poor shooting from the line in a tough road environment. That’s why I’m taking Cincinnati to cover the first-half spread. The Bearcats have done a terrific job at keeping games close, regardless of the circumstances, in conference play. They’ve also been winning outright at halftime in six of their last 12 games away from home.

They’ve shown they can play at multiple tempos, and aren’t phased by hostile environments. The Bearcats rank 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 46th in effective FG%.

It’s also very difficult for teams to beat Cincinnati on the glass. The Bearcats rank 19th in offensive rebound rate, and seventh in defensive rebound rate. The Kansas Jayhawks have struggled on the offensive glass this season, with Hunter Dickinson the only big averaging more than a 10% offensive rebound rate, with guard Jamari McDowell being the only other Jayhawk over 7% this season.

It also helps that the Jayhawks aren’t hurting teams from outside. Kansas ranks 323rd in 3-point rate, with only three of every 10 attempts coming from beyond the arc.

Add all these factors together, and I’m all-in on the Bearcats once again heading into the locker room in a close game. And with Cincinnati catching more than four points in the first half, I simply can’t pass that up.

My best bet: Cincinnati first half +4.5 (-105 at bet365)

Cincinnati vs Kansas same-game parlay

Cincinnati first half +4.5

Kevin McCullar Under 5.5 rebounds

Viktor Lakhin Over 1.5 assists

+525 at bet365

In building our SGP around Cincinnati's first-half spread, we’re going to first take the Under 5.5 rebounds for Kevin McCullar. The Kansas guard is averaging 6.4 rebounds per game, but his rebound rate has gone down since entering conference play.

He’s managed to top this number just twice in five conference outings, going for exactly six both times. Cincinnati’s outstanding rebounding ability will limit his opportunities, and the price of +100 is much better than the -120 on offer at FanDuel and -115 at DraftKings.

We’re also backing Viktor Lakhin to have multiple assists. The Cincinnati big man is shooting nearly 54% from the floor, the fourth-best mark in the Big 12, and he’s going to have a tough matchup with Dickinson. Look for him to kick it out a bit more often, as he registers two or more assists for the fifth time in seven games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cincinnati vs Kansas spread and Over/Under analysis

After opening at -7.5 for Kansas, the spread has been quite volatile through Monday morning. It briefly shifted to -6.5 on Sunday before jumping as high as -9.5. As of midday, it’s settled to -8.5 across the board. 

The Bearcats have covered in three of their last five outings, but are just 3-6 against the spread in their last nine. However, they’ve covered in both conference games where they were underdogs, including an outright win at BYU in a game where they were getting 10 points.

Kansas has covered in just three of its last 10 games, although two of those have come in its past three. The Jayhawks were favored in all of those games, and have lost two of their last four outright despite being favored by seven or more in each.

I like Cincinnati to cover the number, but the free-throw issues concern me. That’s why I’ll stick with the best bet and avoid any bad beats at the end.

Unlike the spread, there’s been little movement in the total. It opened between 145.5 and 146.5 at different books and has held steady at the higher number since this morning.

Cincinnati’s defense has lent to the Under being the play of late, with four of its last six games failing to eclipse the total. That includes both road games in conference play. Kansas has seen the Over hit in its last three games, with pre-game totals ranging between 139 and 150. The Jayhawks have also gone Over in five of their last six games.

I’ll be staying away from the total but I would lean Under here. The free-throw issues are real for Cincinnati, and neither team gets to the line all that much to begin with. Furthermore, they don’t foul a lot, which means fewer opportunities for either team to get points with the clock stopped.

Cincinnati vs Kansas betting trend to know

The 1H Under is 9-3 in Cincinnati’s last 12 games (+5.5 units / 40% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Cincinnati vs. Kansas.

Cincinnati vs Kansas game info

Cincinnati vs Kansas key injuries

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