The AAC's solo Sunday matchup sees the Cincinnati Bearcats visiting the Memphis Tigers with a 3:30 p.m. ET tip-off.
Memphis opened the season ranked No. 12 and got as high as No. 9 before losing four straight to Iowa State, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Murray State. They've since taken down No. 6 Alabama and have gone 2-1 to start AAC conference play, with wins against Wichita State and Tulsa, and a loss to Tulane.
The visiting Bearcats are 11-4 on the season, with their best win being a 71-51 beating of No. 14 Illinois. They've split their two conference games thus far, beating SMU and falling to Tulane.
Can the Tigers run away with this game at home or do the Bearcats have what it takes to keep things tight? Read our free college basketball betting picks and predictions for Cincinnati vs. Memphis to find out.
Cincinnati vs Memphis odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Memphis opened as 8-point favorites and have come down a bit to 7.5-point favorites at the time of writing. The total opened at 142 and has stayed pat for the most part, though there are some 143s available at certain shops.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Cincinnati vs Memphis predictions
Predictions made on 1/9/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Cincinnati vs Memphis game info
• Location: FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN
• Date: Sunday, January 9, 2022
• Tip-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Cincinnati at Memphis betting preview
Injuries
Cincinnati: A.J. McGinnis G (Questionable).
Memphis: DeAndre Williams F (Questionable), Emoni Bates F (Questionable), Jalen Duren C (Questionable), Landers Nolley G (Questionable), Jayden Hardaway G (Questionable), Alex Lomax G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Road teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Find more NCAA betting trends for Cincinnati vs. Memphis.
Cincinnati vs Memphis picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Both of these teams enter this game in interesting spots. On one hand, the Bearcats have the better record at 11-4 but have done so against a schedule that ranks 261st in difficulty, per KenPom.
They've proven to be limited offensively, ranking 149th in adjusted offensive efficiency and are outside the Top 250 in effective field goal percentage, three-point percentage, and free throw percentage. They're shooting just 29% from beyond the arc on the season.
However, they're coming off maybe their best offensive performance of the year: 77 points against SMU on 44/38/86 shooting splits.
Their strength is their defense, which ranks 36th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and 20th in opponent points per game (60.8). They're holding opponents to a 41.2 effective field goal percentage (third in the nation), and only 28.8% from beyond the arc (30th in the nation).
That defense should be able to cause Memphis some fits, even on the road. The Tigers rank 47th in adjusted offensive efficiency but could be missing a number of key guys in this game. Household name Emoni Bates hasn't played since Dec. 14 and the team's top four scorers (including Bates) are all questionable entering tonight's contest.
Memphis started the season 5-0 and was ranked as high as No. 9. Since then, they're 3-5 SU including some bad losses to Georgia and conference rival Tulane. They're 5-8 ATS on the season but are 0-4 ATS as home favorites — the spot they're in here tonight.
Memphis can't be trusted with a spread like this, especially if they're going to be without a number of top guys. The Tigers should and most likely will win outright, but the Bearcats' defense should do enough to keep things tight. I'm taking the Bearcats with the points.
Prediction: Cincinnati +7 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Let's start with this: the Under is 9-2 in the Bearcats' last 11 games.
Memphis may average north of 77 points per game, but are up against one of the nation's better defenses tonight, and could be without multiple top offensive contributors, with DeAndre Williams, Jalen Duren, Emoni Bates, and Landers Nolley all questionable to suit up this afternoon.
On the other side, Cincinnati ranks 242nd in adjusted tempo, and their laundry list of offensive struggles should keep points at a minimum. In addition, Memphis ranks inside the Top 40 in adjusted defensive efficiency and can more than hang on that end of the floor as well.
Back the Under in this game.
Prediction: Under 143 (-110)
Best bet
Simply put, it's in Cincinnatti's best interest to keep this game as low-scoring as possible.
Both defenses are very strong, Cincinnati's offense can be extremely limited at times, and Memphis could end up playing without a handful of top guys. Those factors stacked together should keep this game Under the total.
Pick: Under 143 (-110)
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