Tonight features the No. 10 ranked Texas A&M Aggies heading to Norman to face the No. 17 Oklahoma Sooners in SEC basketball action.
The Sooners are looking to bounce back from their first loss of the season, and my Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma predictions are betting on them to do just that. Here are my best free college basketball picks for this SEC showdown on Wednesday, January 8.
Texas A&M vs Oklahoma prediction
My best bet
Oklahoma -3 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Oklahoma Sooners are now listed at -3 after reports that the Texas A&M Aggies would be missing Wade Taylor IV, who leads the school with 15.7 points and 4.8 assists per game. Taylor and Zhuric Phelps are the only two Aggies averaging more than 9.0 ppg, and they combine to shoot just 38.8% from the floor and 31.5% from deep.
That inefficient shooting will be magnified when playing in hostile territory. Keep in mind that the Aggies have previously played just one true road game, and that was in their season opener when they lost 64-61 to UCF and shot 37% from the field.
Without Taylor's shot-creating and playmaking ability (not to mention his strong perimeter defense), the Aggies won't be able to match Okahoma's offensive firepower. This is a Texas A&M side that sits outside the Top 200 in effective field goal percentage (49%) and turnover rate (17.7%) and will be even worse without the All-SEC guard.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma sits 26th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 23rd in eFG% (56.4%). The Sooners are led by freshman guard Jeremiah Fears (17.9 ppg, 4.4 apg, 2.2 spg) and senior forward Jalon Moore (17.9 ppg on 52/41/87 shooting splits).
While the Aggies are sixth in adjusted defense per KenPom, they rank a modest 63rd in adjusted shot quality defense at ShotQualityBets. That site has them just 341st in the country at defending the rim, while the Sooners are 20th in attacking the rim efficiency.
The Aggies have won eight games in a row, picking up impressive victories against Creighton and Purdue during that span. That said, conference play in the SEC is going to be highly competitive, and facing a 13-1 team on the road while missing your best player doesn't present a good spot.
Texas A&M vs Oklahoma same-game parlay
Oklahoma -2.5
Under 146.5
Zhuric Phelps Over 14.5 points
Thanks to their stingy defense, poor shooting, and slow tempo, the Under is 5-1 in the Aggies' last six games. With their best offensive player sidelined and the O/U only ticking down by 2.5 points, the Under 146 still looks like a good bet.
With Taylor out, Phelps will see his usage rate surge since he'll be relied on to initiate the offense. Phelps averages 13.3 ppg and is coming off a game against Texas where he racked up 18 points in just 24 minutes. He also scored 16 points in a close win against No. 20 Purdue and dropped 20 in a loss versus No. 15 Oregon.
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Texas A&M vs Oklahoma odds
Texas A&M vs Oklahoma live odds
Texas A&M vs Oklahoma opening odds
- Spread: Texas A&M -2.5 | Oklahoma +2.5
- Moneyline: Texas A&M -150 | Oklahoma +120
- Over/Under: Over 148.5 | Under 148.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Texas A&M vs Oklahoma betting trend to know
The Sooners are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS against high-major foes this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma.
How to watch Texas A&M vs Oklahoma
| Location: | Lloyd Noble Center, Norman, OK |
| Date: | Wednesday, 1-8-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SEC Network |
Texas A&M vs Oklahoma key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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