There’s a top 25 Big Ten showdown in Westwood on Tuesday night as the No. 22 UCLA Bruins (11-3, 2-1 Big Ten) host the No. 24 Michigan Wolverines (11-3, 3-0 Big Ten).
Michigan notched an 85-74 win over USC in the first leg of the Southern California road trip while UCLA is looking to rebound after a 66-58 defeat in Nebraska.
What’s the best bet for Tuesday’s big game on the hardwood? Check out our college basketball picks and Michigan vs. UCLA predictions for Tuesday, January 7 to find out.
Michigan vs UCLA prediction
My best bet
Under 140 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The matchup between the Michigan Wolverines and UCLA Bruins features two elite defensive teams, so I’m grabbing the Under as my best bet on Tuesday.
Mick Cronin’s style is evident everywhere on this Bruins roster that grinds out every possession and battles for every loose ball and rebound. The Bruins rank fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom and hold teams to just 39.5% shooting from the field.
On the flip side, Dusty May’s Wolverines rank 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Don’t let the fact that Michigan averaged 84.1 ppg lead you to believe that this is an offense-first type of team — their strongest asset is a tough defense that makes opponents work hard for every shot.
May has two seven-footers at his disposal in Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf. Getting up shots at the rim against them is a chore, and UCLA won’t find many easy buckets.
I expect the Bruins to grind this game down to a halt in order to best execute Cronin’s desired game plan. The Bruins rank 251st in KenPom’s adjusted tempo as opposed to 56th for the Wolverines.
This is a stark contrast in styles. Given that Michigan is on the second leg of a cross-country road trip, I expect UCLA’s methodical tempo to win out.
Part of what makes UCLA’s defense great is that it walls off the paint, ranking 11th in near-proximity attempt rate allowed per Haslametrics. That’s key in a matchup against two seven-footers. The Bruins have held teams to just 29.5% from downtown and have been elite at contested mid-range looks, ranking second in mid-range field goal percentage allowed vs. the average opponent.
The Bruins were without one of their best players, Eric Dailey, during their loss to Nebraska. A rotational player, William Kyle III, was also absent. Both can be considered questionable for this status as no definitive update on their status has been given, although Dailey played through his facial injury in the win over Gonzaga.
Dailey is very impactful on both ends of the court and his status is still up in the air, so I’m focusing on the knowns instead of the unknowns for this handicap. We can be certain that both teams have played stingy defense this year, and
Cronin’s Bruins likely try to slow the game down and make things a defensive battle. Give me the Under.
Michigan vs UCLA same-game parlay
Under 140
UCLA -3
This is an important game for UCLA, coming off a loss to Nebraska and having a road trip to Maryland on deck. The Bruins could lose some serious ground in the Big Ten standings if they were to drop three games in a row, and I have to think that thought is at the forefront of Cronin’s preaching to his team.
Traveling across the country to face the Southern California schools will be no easy task for Big Ten schools. It was evident during the college football season that these faraway road games put the away team at a severe disadvantage, and it’s likely we see similar effects during conference play in the college basketball season.
These teams are unfamiliar with these road trips and while that didn’t matter much in Michigan’s win over USC, this is a different matter against a much more capable Bruins team for the second leg.
There’s a reason the Bruins are favored and I’d be surprised if Dailey doesn’t suit up considering the magnitude of this game, his presence in the lineup against Gonzaga despite having the same injury, and the whispers from those covering the program.
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Michigan vs UCLA odds
Michigan vs UCLA live odds
Michigan vs UCLA opening odds
- Spread: Michigan +2.5 | UCLA -2.5
- Moneyline: Michigan +130 | UCLA -155
- Over/Under: Over 141.5 (-110) | Under 141.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Michigan vs UCLA betting trend to know
Michigan has cashed the Under in 22 of its last 32 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. UCLA. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. UCLA.
How to watch Michigan vs UCLA
| Location: | Pauley Pavilion, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-7-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
Michigan vs UCLA key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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