Georgia will try to put its first notch in the SEC win column when the Bulldogs host the Kentucky Wildcats tonight.
The Wildcats are fresh off a thrilling win over Florida at home this weekend, while the Bulldogs suffered just their second defeat of the campaign as they lost by 12 at Mississippi.
My Kentucky vs. Georgia picks predictions break down why one Wildcat is unlikely to have a big impact on the offensive end. Find out more in our college basketball picks for Tuesday, January 7.
Kentucky vs Georgia prediction
My best bet
Koby Brea Under 9.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Under the bright lights of Rupp Arena, Koby Brea showed up and made people take notice. The guard put on a show for Kentucky on Saturday, burying seven of nine attempts from beyond the arc and scoring a season-high 23 points to help defeat Florida.
Brea has thrived in Lexington this season. In his 10 games played at Rupp, he’s made 39 of his 3-point attempts at an unheard-of clip of 58.2% accuracy. Leaving him open in front of Big Blue Nation is almost like giving him a wide-open layup.
The problem for Brea is that hasn’t translated into similar success away from home. In his four games away from Rupp — with neutral-site games against Duke, Gonzaga, and Ohio State, as well as a road game at Clemson — he’s gone entirely the other way.
Not only is he attempting fewer shots, but he’s making far fewer. Of Brea’s 19 attempts from deep outside Rupp, only six have fallen. That 31.5% rate is a drastic departure and a key reason why he’s averaged just 6.0 points per game in his away adventures. And while Brea isn’t a liability when he’s not making 3-point shots, he hasn't offered much else at the offensive end.
On the year, he’s made just 18 shots from inside the arc, barely more than one per game on average, and he’s attempted just eight free throws. Even when he’s making shots, Brea’s usage rate is rarely high. Only four times in 14 games has his usage gone above 15%.
Kentucky’s offense thrives on tempo, but Georgia likes to slow the pace down this season against better teams. The Bulldogs also rank Top 20 in 3-point defense, with opponents making just 28.5% of their outside shots.
Georgia’s defensive spacing has been among the best in college basketball, and while the Bulldogs have played only three teams above Quad-3 this season, they play at a slower pace combined with a physical style that has given Kentucky problems this season.
Until Brea shows he can hit his shots away from home, I’m going to bet against him doing so. He’s also apparently dealing with a possible injury issue, as he popped up as “questionable” on the SEC injury report on Monday night.
Kentucky vs Georgia same-game parlay
Koby Brea Under 9.5 points
Asa Newell Over 6.5 rebounds
Asa Newell Over 14.5 points
Kentucky lacks physicality inside, which has been exposed a few times this season. Florida came into the game this weekend as one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation, and the Gators racked up an eye-opening 41.7% offensive rebound rate. Gonzaga and Clemson also had rates of 34% or better on the offensive glass.
Asa Newell is a key reason why Georgia enters this contest ranked 10th in offensive rebound rate. He pulled down 10 in the loss to Ole Miss, and 57.4% of his rebounds in his last six games have come at that end of the floor.
Kentucky allows opponents to shoot 63.3% near the rim, among the nation’s worst marks. Newell has a terrific chance to not only give his team multiple second-chance opportunities at the offensive end, but cash in on them himself.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kentucky vs Georgia odds
Kentucky vs Georgia live odds
Kentucky vs Georgia opening odds
- Spread: Kentucky -2.5 | Georgia +2.5
- Moneyline: Kentucky -150 | Georgia +125
- Over/Under: Over 157 | Under 157
Odds courtesy of bet365
Kentucky vs Georgia betting trend to know
Georgia has hit the team total Under in 14 of its last 22 games at home (+5.10 Units / 20% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Georgia.
How to watch Kentucky vs Georgia
| Location: | Stegeman Coliseum, Athens, GA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-7-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SEC Network |
Kentucky vs Georgia key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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