The No. 15-ranked Oregon Ducks head to Columbus to face the Ohio State Buckeyes on Thursday night.
The Ducks may have gotten crushed by the Buckeyes on the football field, but my Oregon vs. Ohio State predictions are betting on their basketball program to keep things close tonight. Here are my best free college basketball picks for this Big Ten showdown on January 9.
Oregon vs Ohio State prediction
My best bet
Oregon +4 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
When it comes to the analytics, there isn't much separating these teams. The Oregon Ducks are No. 28 in the KenPom ratings, and are 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 46th in adjusted defense. The Ohio State Buckeyes are No. 31 at KenPom while ranking 32nd on offense and 42nd on defense.
The Ducks are 13-2, and while they had an ugly loss to Illinois last week, they bounced back with a win. They also looked like national title contender when they played in the Players Era Festival in late November and beat Texas A&M, San Diego State, and Alabama to win the tournament.
While the Buckeyes have home-court advantage, they've already been defeated twice in Columbus this season, losing 69-62 to Michigan State last week and getting pipped in overtime by Pittsburgh.
It will be interesting to see how these West Coast teams in the Big Ten handle traveling across the country for conference games (and vice versa), but Oregon might actually be more fresh.
The Ducks have enjoyed three days off since beating Maryland 83-79 on Sunday, and they've played just twice in the last 10 days. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are coming off a hard-fought double-overtime win against Minnesota on Monday and have played twice in the last six days.
That razor-close win against Minnesota was particularly troubling because the Gophers have been awful (112th at KenPom) and would have won had they not shot 44% from the free-throw line.
The Buckeyes are outside the Top 300 in opponent free-throw rate, while the Ducks do a good job of getting to the line, where they convert 75.3% of their shots. Oregon is 20th in opponent free-throw rate and won't give up as many freebies, which will be crucial in what should be a competitive game.
Oregon vs Ohio State same-game parlay
Oregon +4
Jackson Shelstad Over 10.5 points
John Mobley Jr. Over 1.5 assists
Ducks guard Jackson Shelstad is second on the team with 11.5 ppg. Shelstad was a key cog in Oregon's Pac 12 title run last year, scoring 21 points in the tournament semifinal before dropping 17 points in the final.
He was expected to take a big step in his sophomore season but hasn't been as assertive as many thought he would be. That should change after he erupted for 23 points in Oregon's last game against Maryland.
With Meechie Johnson Jr. taking time away from OSU for personal reasons, freshman guard John Mobley Jr. has broken into the starting lineup. Mobley is best known for his perimeter shooting, but he's also been passing the ball extremely well, racking up at 3+ assists in four of his five starts.
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Oregon vs Ohio State odds
Oregon vs Ohio State live odds
Oregon vs Ohio State opening odds
- Spread: Oregon +3 | Ohio State -3
- Moneyline: Oregon +120 | Ohio State -140
- Over/Under: Over 151 | Under 151
Odds courtesy of bet365
Oregon vs Ohio State betting trend to know
The Ducks have hit the Over on their team total in 22 of their last 36 games (+5.90 Units / 14% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Oregon vs. Ohio State.
How to watch Oregon vs Ohio State
| Location: | Schottenstein Center, Columbus, OH |
| Date: | Thursday, 1-9-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BTN |
Oregon vs Ohio State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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