Arkansas and Mississippi meet in what is sure to be another entertaining SEC affair.
Lately, it’s been rough sledding for the Hogs. They’ll arrive at this one off a smashing from Tennessee and essentially only having one “big” win to their names in the form of Michigan.
Despite the Rebels winning five of their last six, my Arkansas vs. Mississippi predictions will back the hosts for a few reasons.
Find out why in my free college basketball picks for Wednesday, January 8.
Mississippi vs Arkansas prediction
My best bet
Arkansas moneyline (-185 at bet365)
My analysis
Yet again, I find myself more bullish on the Arkansas Razorbacks than the market, and yet again, I will be betting on them.
It’s not because I think head coach John Calipari is particularly brilliant. I’ve lamented about my problems with his style before, but you cannot ignore the talent that’s assembled. Outside that, it’s also because I fully recognize the defensive metrics that the Razorbacks have put up and understand they should be getting more out of that production. I’m laying the juice with Arkansas to win today. I see more value in the money line than anything, as my projections price it at -220.
Given my opening, it should be no surprise that the story of this game for me is the Arkansas defense. I see them controlling this game and being why the Hogs win it. Let’s look at the three places Mississippi goes to for offense the most.
Leading the pack is offensive plays that end with a mid-range shot. The Rebels have one of the highest frequencies nationally of mid-range shots, ranking in the 94th percentile in college basketball from a volume perspective. Arkansas has been great defensively here, holding opponents to .64 points per possession. Secondarily, out of a set offense, the foundation of Mississippi’s offense is perimeter cutting with another high volume rate compared to the national average.
But the problem for them? You probably guessed it. Arkansas is also borderline elite defensively here, holding opponents to .78 points per possession on these sets.
To put it plainly, this is a bad matchup for Mississippi at a bad time and a bad location. Arkansas’s home-court advantage is one of the better in the country, and its strengths defensively are the strengths of the Rebel offense. Good-on-good, I’m inclined to favor the more talented team at home in a desperation spot.
Mississippi vs Arkansas same-game parlay
Arkansas moneyline
Sean Pedulla Under 14.5 points
Keeping this one short and sweet, we paired Ole Miss’s Sean Pedulla to go Under his points total with our best bet. Out of the entire Rebels roster, Pedulla may be the most reliant player on mid-range scores, averaging just over 3 per game. I expect Mississippi to be eliminated by the Arkansas defense in this part of the game, so I have no problem taking him under this number.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Mississippi vs Arkansas odds
Mississippi vs Arkansas live odds
Mississippi vs Arkansas opening odds
- Spread: Mississippi +3 | Arkansas -3
- Moneyline: Mississippi +125 | Arkansas -150
- Over/Under: Over 146.5 | Under 146.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Mississippi vs Arkansas betting trend to know
Arkansas has hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 33 games (+6.70 Units / 1% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi vs. Arkansas.
How to watch Mississippi vs Arkansas
| Location: | Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, AR |
| Date: | Wednesday, 1-8-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Mississippi vs Arkansas key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
